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U.S. Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
About the Hazards Outlook
 
Created December 02, 2022
 
NOTE:
These products are only created Monday through Friday. Please exercise caution using this outlook during the weekend.
 
Precipitation
Temperature
Soils
 
Valid December 05, 2022 - December 09, 2022
 
Static Hazards Map Image
 
CPC's Day 8-14 US Hazards Outlook
 

US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EST Fri Dec 02 2022

Valid Monday December 05 2022 - Friday December 09 2022

Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains, Wed-Thu, Dec
7-Dec 8.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, and the Ohio
Valley, Mon-Tue, Dec 5-Dec 6.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Northeast, Tue, Dec 6.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Pacific Northwest, Thu, Dec 8.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Central Rockies, and the Northern Rockies, Mon, Dec 5.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of California, and the Northern Great Basin,
Wed-Thu, Dec 7-Dec 8.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern
Plains, Mon-Wed, Dec 5-Dec 7.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Wed-Thu, Dec
7-Dec 8.
- Heavy snow across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon, Dec 5.
- Freezing rain across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon, Dec 5.
- High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Mon, Dec 5.

Detailed Summary:

...CONUS...

Overall, the synoptic-scale pattern during the upcoming work week (12/5 - 12/9) will be dominated
by several large-scale features, including a potent upper-level low lingering along the West coast
and a deep upper-level ridge residing in the Gulf of Mexico. At higher latitudes, two amplifying
upper ridges, one over Alaska/Yukon and another over Greenland, will link up, forcing a deep upper
low to become positioned over Hudson Bay. Consequently, moist zonal flow will take shape across the
mid-south, with a frontal boundary beginning to form late this weekend before pushing north and
increasing the potential chances for rainfall across the Appalachians, Mississippi Valley, and
ArkLaTex region. As moist air surges northward behind the frontal boundary that will eventually
stall across the mid-south through the end of the week, multiple disturbances moving through the
zonal flow from the west will produce an extended period of precipitation across the aforementioned
regions. While model uncertainty remains in pinpointing where the axis of heaviest precipitation
sets up midweek and beyond, there is agreement that heavy rain will fall across northern MS, AL,
GA, and the Tennessee Valley on Monday, December 5th, before expanding westward into Arkansas the
following day. The heaviest axis will continue shifting into the southern Plains as moist Gulf air
surges northwestward in conjunction with additional energy pushing eastward as the upper-level
trough approaches from the west, with heavy rainfall continuing through Thursday, December 8th.
Ahead of the northern extent of the previously mentioned frontal boundary, heavy rainfall will be
possible in the Northeast on Tuesday, December 6th, as ridging builds in the Atlantic, funneling
moist air into the region. Mixed precipitation and snow may be possible on the backside of the
advancing cold front across portions of interior New England and Maine, although models remain
bearish on accumulations.

Across the western region, the aforementioned upper-level trough residing near the coast will set
the stage for multiple plumes of moisture making their way onshore throughout the week, with the
initial onset of precipitation moving eastward into the Great Basin and Intermountain West from
California on Monday. Heavy snow will be possible across the Wasatch and Teton Ranges, with the
potential for at least moderate snow-related impacts in the higher terrain on Monday. As the
disturbance continues to progress eastward, the heavy snow potential will shift into the central
Rockies on Tuesday before waning during the overnight hours. The next plume of moisture will take
aim at the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, with heavy snowfall being possible in the higher terrains
of the Olympic and Cascade Ranges and additional chances of at least moderate snow-related impacts.
Precipitation will continue on Friday, December 9th, as additional moisture moves ashore, shifting
the bulk of rainfall and higher-elevation snow southward into Oregon and northern California.

Temperature-wise, cold air will begin to grip Montana and the northern Plains through midweek as an
arctic cold front progresses south from Canada, resulting in temperatures 15-25 degrees below
normal in its wake. Furthermore, portions of the Pacific Northwest in the lee of the Cascades, as
well as the northern Great Basin, could also see below-average temperatures throughout the week,
albeit less extreme than the northern Plains. Elsewhere, the southern region can expect
unseasonably warm temperatures as the strong upper-level ridge in the Gulf of Mexico funnels warm,
moist air northward into the region.


...Alaska...

In Alaska, a strong pressure gradient over the mainland and Alluetians associated with back to back
low pressure systems moving across the Arctic and eastern Russia will begin to relax Monday as the
systems weaken and move further away from the region. Strong, gusty winds along the northern and
western coasts should be subsiding by Monday morning. However, the threat for gusts over 60 mph
will likely linger a bit longer across the western Allutians through the day. Meanwhile,
anomalously high temperatures 20 to 30 degrees above normal over the mainland will keep
temperatures near freezing along the western coast Monday as warmer air remains aloft. Freezing
rain will continue through the day before transitioning to snow on Tuesday as temperatures finally
cool a bit closer to normal. Heavy snow will still be possible for the higher elevations of the
Brooks Range. Frontal systems moving along the southern coast will lead to snowfall in Southcentral
but forecast amounts look to remain typical for early winter in the region. A stronger push of
moist, onshore flow ahead of a developing low over the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday will likely
bring much heavier precipitation in the form of coastal rain and mountain snow to the southeast
coast and Panhandle through Thursday.


Russell/Putnam


 
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