For the most up to date information on the flooding areas, please refer to the National Flood Outlook
US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Valid Saturday July 02 2022 - Wednesday July 06 2022
- Heavy rain across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley, Mon-Tue, Jul 4-Jul 5.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the eastern Dakotas and the northern Minnesota.
- Flooding likely across portions of eastern Iowa.
- Excessive heat across portions of the central and southern Plains into the lower and
mid-Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, as well as the interior portion of the Deep South,
Tue-Wed, Jul 5-Jul 6.
- Excessive heat across portions of the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley, Mon-Wed, Jul 4-Jul 6.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of northern Alaska, Sat-Sun, Jul 2-Jul 3.
The medium-range period will begin this Saturday, July 2nd, with a modestly strong ridge of high
pressure remaining in control through the central and southern tiers of the country while cooler
air from Canada attempts to dip into the northern tier under a fairly zonal upper air pattern.
This general synoptic pattern is forecast to prevail through the Fourth of July weekend and into
the middle of next week with a gradual strengthening of the upper ridge forecast over the
mid-section of the country.
In terms of rainfall, occasional intrusion of cooler air from Canada will tend to focus meaningful
rounds of rain across the northern tier states between a pair of frontal boundaries. Models
appear to be in general agreement that the best chance of organized heavy rain will be somewhere in
the upper Mississippi Valley especially on the Fourth of July and into next Tuesday with a fair
amount of uncertainty. Meanwhile, as a cold front slides across the Northeast this weekend, models
indicate the possibility of heavy rain exiting the northern Mid-Atlantic region as heavy rain
associated with a tropical moisture feed is forecast to skirt the Carolina coasts. They have not
been depicted on the map due to their relatively confined areas. By next Tuesday into Wednesday,
models indicate that portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast could be under the threat of locally heavy
rain, likely due to repeated rounds of scattered air mass thunderstorms.
Farther south across the Gulf Coast states, scattered thunderstorms will be most active during the
afternoon into the evening each day through the middle of next week. The highest chance of heavy
rain will be over the western Gulf Coast region where tropical downpours associated with a weak low
pressure system is forecast to move inland. However, as the disturbance is forecast to move inland
and weaken further on Saturday, heavy rain is not indicated on the map over the western Gulf Coast.
Over the southern Rockies, diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue each
day through the medium-range period. Models are in good agreement that these monsoonal
thunderstorms will be most active across New Mexico into the Colorado Rockies. While widespread
heavy rainfall is not expected, locally heavy downpours could quickly lead to flash flooding
concerns especially over burn scars and areas with highly sensitive soils.
Between the pair of fronts across the northern tier and the scattered thunderstorms across the Gulf
states, heat and humidity is forecast to expand across the South as an upper ridge amplifies.
Heat indices are forecast to peak above 105 degrees first from the lower Mississippi Valley into
the lower Missouri River Basin on Independence Day due to high humidity with dew point temperatures
near or above 75 degrees and actual temperatures heading towards the mid-90's. High temperatures
exceeding the century mark will likely occur much farther west across the central High Plains but
the humidity will be more tolerable there. The heat and humidity is forecast to expand further
north and west towards midweek as the upper ridge strengthens.
For Alaska, a warm upper ridge is forecast to be slowly eroded by shortwaves working their way
towards the West Coast. Much above normal temperature across portions of northern Alaska during
the weekend will gradually give way to temperatures closer to normal with an increasing chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Elsewhere, no hazardous weather is anticipated through the rest
of the medium-range period.
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