Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 AM EDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 03 2025 - 12Z Sun Oct 05 2025

...Record high temperatures likely across the Northern Plains, Upper
Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes...

...Heavy rains and flooding possible along the east coast of Florida...

The mid to upper level flow will remain highly amplified across the Lower
48 over the next several days, consisting of a deep upper trough moving
inland from the West Coast Friday into the Great Basin and Rockies by
Saturday, a building upper ridge from the Southern Plains into the Ohio
Valley and Northeast, and a weak upper low forming across the
north-central Gulf. This pattern will support a large spread in
temperatures from west to east late this week into the weekend. Cooler
than average temperatures are likely from the West Coast through the Great
Basin toward the Rockies as a strong surface cold front pushes inland with
the aforementioned deep upper trough. But east of the Rockies, the upper
ridge will promote above average to well above average temperatures for
most areas, except for the southern Mid-Atlantic into Florida. Record high
afternoon temperatures and record high morning low temperatures are likely
to stretch from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Great Lakes over the next two days. Across these areas, high temperatures
Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s,
ranging from 15 to 30 degrees above average. This late season heat wave
will produce moderate to major HeatRisk across parts of the Dakotas,
Minnesota, Iowa, western Wisconsin, and into northern Illinois. Relief
from this heat will begin late this weekend as a strong front pushes
eastward across the north-central U.S.

The wettest weather over the next few days will be along the east coast of
Florida into the coastal Southeast and along portions of the central Gulf
Coast. An area of surface high pressure is forecast to remain centered
across the Northeast over the next few days. The clockwise flow around
this high will keep persistent easterly to east-northeasterly low level
flow off the Atlantic and into Florida and vicinity. This pattern will
support numerous showers across these areas, with the heaviest rains
likely along the east coast of Florida into the weekend. Localized
flooding issues are possible, especially in the urban areas along the east
coast of Florida, and a Slight Risk (level 2/4) is in place in the Friday
and Saturday Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. Farther west, some rain could
occur over the central Gulf Coast, but amounts will be dependent on how
much sneaks onshore, with heavier amounts offshore.

The strong cold front slowly moving through the Intermountain West and
Rockies late this week will promote precipitation chances. Moderate to
heavy rain could cause isolated flooding concerns for those areas Friday,
along with isolated severe weather (high wind and hail threats). Expect
rain and a Marginal Risk of severe weather to push east into the
Northern/Central Plains by Saturday ahead of the cold front. Meanwhile in
the higher elevations, snow is likely. Winter Storm Watches are in place
across parts of the Northern Rockies/Absaroka Range/Bighorn Mountains for
possibly several inches of snowfall over the weekend.


Tate/Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 06 2025 - 12Z Fri Oct 10 2025


...General Overview...

Upper ridging over the Eastern Seaboard will shunt south and shift
west over the Gulf Coast Monday through Tuesday where it will
persist through next week. Meanwhile a more transient upper pattern
continues over the central/northern states with a deep trough
swinging through the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold
front a Canadian surface high pressure follows this trough with
cooler than normal temperatures tracking from the northern Plains
Tuesday to the Northeast by late week. Farther south, tropical
moisture interacting with a lingering stationary front may produce
heavy thunderstorms over Florida, Georgia, and into South Carolina
Monday. Finally, deep upper troughing looks to amplify along/off
the Pacific Northwest coast later next week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

A major shift in the 00Z guidance is noted over prior runs with
stronger ridging over Florida Monday into Tuesday with markedly
less QPF in SC/GA. Also the 00Z ECMWF is much slower with tropical
activity/QPF into the Desert Southwest later next week compared to
the 12Z run. Also, the late week troughing over the Northwest looks
to be slower and farther west/offshore in the 00Z guidance compared
to the previous. Quite remarkable how stark the differences are
with Days 4/5 QPF in the Southeast and Days 6/7 in the Southwest.
However, much of this was noted in the 12Z/18Z EC-AIFS runs which
once again seems to be leading global deterministic guidance in
overall synoptic pattern recognition. By the way the UKMET is no
longer available for usage in our blending process, so the WPC
forecast relied heavily on the EC/GFS with some CMC Days 3-5 before
going heavier on the ECENS means for 6/7.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Despite 00Z guidance having marked reductions in Southeast QPF
Monday/Tuesday, the new Day 4 ERO remains Marginal with some shifts
south and inland. The moisture anomalies are now generally focused
over the FL Peninsula into GA/AL, so this are will need continued
monitoring for excessive rain.

A cold front ahead of a powerful trough pivots over the central
Plains into the Midwest Monday. The risk of repeating heavy rain
warrants maintenance of a Marginal Risk for Day 4 from central KS
through the IL/WI border. The area was shifted south a bit based on
00Z consensus trending more toward the greater instability to the
south.

Moisture anomalies increase over New Mexico Tuesday from continued
surges of moisture from the western Gulf onto a frontal wave that
is stalled over northern NM. Introduced a Day 5 Marginal Risk for
much of NM. Considered a Slight Risk, but given the notable run-
to-run changes in guidance a Marginal will suffice for now.

Temperatures will be below normal under troughing over the
Intermountain West Monday with that cooler trend shifting east
with a cold front over the Northern Plains Tuesday, the Midwest
Wednesday, and the Eastern Seaboard for Thursday/Friday. Meanwhile,
ridging over the Gulf Coast will maintain above normal temperatures
over Texas and Louisiana through next week.


Jackson


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Valid 00Z Sat 04 Oct 2025 - 00Z Sat 11 Oct 2025

Trough north of the islands will maintain southeast flow through
tonight before flow more northeasterly arrives for Saturday and
Sunday. Weak low pressure tracks to the north Monday into
Wednesday with weaker flow expected before a return of normal
trades later in the week. The wettest period of the next week
looks to be as the low approaches Tuesday/Wednesday. Drier than
normal conditions can be expected until then.

Jackson

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1202 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Oct 03 2025 - 12Z Sat Oct 04 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN FLORIDA AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...Florida's East Coast...

For the 16Z Update, the Slight Risk centered along Florida's
Treasure Coast was removed. While easterly flow is still expected
to support showers and storms, with isolated heavy amounts possible
along Florida's East Coast, the consensus of the HREF/RRFS has
trended down along the Treasure Coast -- showing the focus for
deeper moisture and heavier amounts further south. Probabilities
from the HREF/RRFS now indicate the greatest chance for heavy
amounts through the remainder of Day 1 is across Southeast Florida,
which may result in runoff concerns, especially if they set up
over the urbanized areas. However, confidence in the details is
limited, with some indication that the heaviest amounts may set up
west of the urbanized areas over the Everglades. Therefore,
maintained just a Marginal Risk for now.

...Great Basin...

Additional rainfall is forecast to occur beneath the upper low,
which will continue propagating through the interior West today.
Recent heavy rainfall over portions of the Great Basin will likely
prime surfaces for runoff from additional precipitation. Burn
scars in central and southern Idaho continue to be of concern from
today's storms, the bulk of which should occur this morning into
afternoon before the upper low moves directly over the Great Basin
and instability weakens. HREF EAS exceedance probabilities of over
1 inch are between 15-35% over northern/central Nevada where PWATs
will be between 2-3 standard deviations above normal.


Pereira/Kebede

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1202 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 04 2025 - 12Z Sun Oct 05 2025

...THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA'S EAST COAST...

...Florida's East Coast...

Thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop along the
inverted trough axis oriented north-south along Florida's east
coast on Saturday. Moisture will lift north along with the mid-
level disturbance. The inherited slight and marginal risk areas
were maintained due to a mostly consistent signal for excessive
rainfall over the east central coast. Ensemble exceedance
probabilities of 2 inches are between 5-10% across the marginal
risk area. 48 hour totals between 3-5 inches (local 6") will likely
make overcoming flash flood guidance a bit easier.

...Central Gulf Coast...

The same moisture regime impacting the Florida peninsula will focus
over the central Gulf Coast this weekend. Mid-level vorticity will
lift into the area on Saturday, providing forcing for convection
along the immediate Louisiana/Mississippi coast. Anywhere between
4-6 inches of rain may occur over far southeastern Louisiana
through Saturday night. Despite 2" ensemble exceedance
probabilities being relatively low (5-10%), the multi day nature
of the rainfall could still produce isolated instances of flash
flooding.


Kebede

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1202 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 05 2025 - 12Z Mon Oct 06 2025

...THERE'S A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST...

...Central Gulf Coast...

The mid-level disturbance continues propagating westward toward the
positively tilted upper trough centered over the West on Sunday.
Thus, the heavy rainfall threat will likely bleed over from
Saturday evening into Sunday morning for portions of the Central
Gulf Coast, before dissipating beneath diminished support aloft.
PWATs of 2-2.5" and instability between 500-1000 J/Kg MUCAPE could
churn out rain rates between 1-1.5"/hr Saturday morning into
afternoon. Ensemble exceedance probabilities of 2 inches are
between 5-15% along the far southeastern Louisiana to Florida
panhandle corridor, which supports the marginal risk area in
place.

...Southeast Coast...

Inverted troughing continues along the Florida/Southeast Coast
through the latter part of this weekend. Anomalous moisture (2-3
stndv) will continue interacting with the surface boundary to
generate scattered to isolated thunderstorms across the
Florida/Georgia coast. Rainfall totals of 1-3" are likely along
the Florida/Georgia/South Carolina coast on Saturday. The latest
guidance has trended away from tropical moisture making its way
inland, therefore a marginal risk was maintained for much of the
Southeast Coast.


Kebede

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025


Despite 00Z guidance having marked reductions in Southeast QPF
Monday/Tuesday, the new Day 4 ERO remains Marginal with some shifts
south and inland. The moisture anomalies are now generally focused
over the FL Peninsula into GA/AL, so this are will need continued
monitoring for excessive rain.

A cold front ahead of a powerful trough pivots over the central
Plains into the Midwest Monday. The risk of repeating heavy rain
warrants maintenance of a Marginal Risk for Day 4 from central KS
through the IL/WI border. The area was shifted south a bit based on
00Z consensus trending more toward the greater instability to the
south.

Moisture anomalies increase over New Mexico Tuesday from continued
surges of moisture from the western Gulf onto a frontal wave that
is stalled over northern NM. Introduced a Day 5 Marginal Risk for
much of NM. Considered a Slight Risk, but given the notable run-
to-run changes in guidance a Marginal will suffice for now.

Temperatures will be below normal under troughing over the
Intermountain West Monday with that cooler trend shifting east
with a cold front over the Northern Plains Tuesday, the Midwest
Wednesday, and the Eastern Seaboard for Thursday/Friday. Meanwhile,
ridging over the Gulf Coast will maintain above normal temperatures
over Texas and Louisiana through next week.


Jackson

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025


Despite 00Z guidance having marked reductions in Southeast QPF
Monday/Tuesday, the new Day 4 ERO remains Marginal with some shifts
south and inland. The moisture anomalies are now generally focused
over the FL Peninsula into GA/AL, so this are will need continued
monitoring for excessive rain.

A cold front ahead of a powerful trough pivots over the central
Plains into the Midwest Monday. The risk of repeating heavy rain
warrants maintenance of a Marginal Risk for Day 4 from central KS
through the IL/WI border. The area was shifted south a bit based on
00Z consensus trending more toward the greater instability to the
south.

Moisture anomalies increase over New Mexico Tuesday from continued
surges of moisture from the western Gulf onto a frontal wave that
is stalled over northern NM. Introduced a Day 5 Marginal Risk for
much of NM. Considered a Slight Risk, but given the notable run-
to-run changes in guidance a Marginal will suffice for now.

Temperatures will be below normal under troughing over the
Intermountain West Monday with that cooler trend shifting east
with a cold front over the Northern Plains Tuesday, the Midwest
Wednesday, and the Eastern Seaboard for Thursday/Friday. Meanwhile,
ridging over the Gulf Coast will maintain above normal temperatures
over Texas and Louisiana through next week.


Jackson

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 04 2025 - 00Z Tue Oct 07 2025

...Northern Rockies...
Days 2-3...

Dynamic longwave pattern will transpire across the western CONUS
as we move into the weekend with a deep closed upper-low over the
Great Basin pivoting northeast into the northern Rockies before
opening up into a relatively strong negatively-tilted shortwave
trough before exiting. Strong height-falls occurring over the Basin
through the northern Rockies will allow for freezing levels to
plummet over the course of Friday night into Saturday, continuing
further into early Sunday morning. Combination of falling heights
and strong upper-level ascent across the region mixing with
elevated PWATs will generate a transition from rain to snow across
portions of the Tetons over into the Absaroka/Beartooth Ranges of
MT/WY, followed by the Big Horn mountains a bit downstream. Snow
levels will tumble to around 7000ft MSL by Sunday morning across
the terrain with a reasonable precip distribution contributing to
periods of moderate to locally heavy snow within the terrain and
adjacent foothills.

As that negatively-tilted shortwave tracks into the Plains Sunday
morning, a second shortwave rounding the back of the longwave
trough will dive southeastward out of Alberta through much of
MT from Saturday night through much of the day on Sunday. This
shortwave will result in a period of heavy snow across much of
Glacier NP late Saturday night through Sunday morning. This
secondary forcing will keep the snow that began with the first
shortwave Saturday ongoing through Sunday. The snow will end from
north to south Sunday and Sunday night. WPC probabilities for more
than 6 inches of snow remain between 50-90% for the Beartooth,
Absaroka, and Big Horn Ranges.

The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.

Wegman/Kleebauer

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 06 2025 - 12Z Fri Oct 10 2025


...General Overview...

Upper ridging over the Eastern Seaboard will shunt south and shift
west over the Gulf Coast Monday through Tuesday where it will
persist through next week. Meanwhile a more transient upper pattern
continues over the central/northern states with a deep trough
swinging through the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold
front a Canadian surface high pressure follows this trough with
cooler than normal temperatures tracking from the northern Plains
Tuesday to the Northeast by late week. Farther south, tropical
moisture interacting with a lingering stationary front may produce
heavy thunderstorms over Florida, Georgia, and into South Carolina
Monday. Finally, deep upper troughing looks to amplify along/off
the Pacific Northwest coast later next week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

A major shift in the 00Z guidance is noted over prior runs with
stronger ridging over Florida Monday into Tuesday with markedly
less QPF in SC/GA. Also the 00Z ECMWF is much slower with tropical
activity/QPF into the Desert Southwest later next week compared to
the 12Z run. Also, the late week troughing over the Northwest looks
to be slower and farther west/offshore in the 00Z guidance compared
to the previous. Quite remarkable how stark the differences are
with Days 4/5 QPF in the Southeast and Days 6/7 in the Southwest.
However, much of this was noted in the 12Z/18Z EC-AIFS runs which
once again seems to be leading global deterministic guidance in
overall synoptic pattern recognition. By the way the UKMET is no
longer available for usage in our blending process, so the WPC
forecast relied heavily on the EC/GFS with some CMC Days 3-5 before
going heavier on the ECENS means for 6/7.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Despite 00Z guidance having marked reductions in Southeast QPF
Monday/Tuesday, the new Day 4 ERO remains Marginal with some shifts
south and inland. The moisture anomalies are now generally focused
over the FL Peninsula into GA/AL, so this are will need continued
monitoring for excessive rain.

A cold front ahead of a powerful trough pivots over the central
Plains into the Midwest Monday. The risk of repeating heavy rain
warrants maintenance of a Marginal Risk for Day 4 from central KS
through the IL/WI border. The area was shifted south a bit based on
00Z consensus trending more toward the greater instability to the
south.

Moisture anomalies increase over New Mexico Tuesday from continued
surges of moisture from the western Gulf onto a frontal wave that
is stalled over northern NM. Introduced a Day 5 Marginal Risk for
much of NM. Considered a Slight Risk, but given the notable run-
to-run changes in guidance a Marginal will suffice for now.

Temperatures will be below normal under troughing over the
Intermountain West Monday with that cooler trend shifting east
with a cold front over the Northern Plains Tuesday, the Midwest
Wednesday, and the Eastern Seaboard for Thursday/Friday. Meanwhile,
ridging over the Gulf Coast will maintain above normal temperatures
over Texas and Louisiana through next week.


Jackson


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw