Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 07 2024 - 00Z Wed Oct 09 2024

...Hurricane Milton continues to intensify over the southwest Gulf of
Mexico and is expected to move northeastward towards the Florida Peninsula
by the middle of the week...

...Very heavy rainfall well ahead of Hurricane Milton will arrive across
the Florida Peninsula and Keys bringing the threat of flash flooding...

...Showers and thunderstorms expected for portions of the Upper Ohio
Valley and Lower Great Lakes through this evening with the threat for some
large hail and damaging winds...

...Record-breaking heat will continue across California and the Southwest
through early this week...

Hurricane Milton continues to intensify over southwestern Gulf of Mexico
and is currently forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to move
northeastward towards the Florida Peninsula by the middle of this week.
However, potentially significant flash flooding impacts are expected well
ahead of the storm as anomalously moist tropical air and instability
increase along a wavy frontal boundary draped across the southern Florida
Peninsula. Separate waves of low pressure along this front will favor
areas of very heavy to potentially extreme rainfall in a concentrated
fashion across portions of South Florida through Monday and Tuesday. There
is Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall (level 3/4) depicted over this
region. Additional heavy rainfall more directly connected to Hurricane
Milton will arrive by Wednesday, and going through Wednesday night,
rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with localized totals of 15 inches are
expected. Please consult the latest NHC public advisories for the latest
information on the expected track and impacts from Hurricane Milton.

An upper-level trough and associated surface frontal system will pass
through areas of the Upper Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes region and the
interior of the Northeast going through tonight and Monday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, and there will be a
concern for some severe weather especially this evening across areas of
eastern Ohio, the northern West Virginia Panhandle, western Pennsylvania
and western New York as the cold front arrives. The Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) has highlighted a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather
across these areas and mainly for the threat of large hail and damaging
winds.

Meanwhile, a record-breaking late-season heat wave will continue through
early this week across areas of central and southern California and the
Desert Southwest as a ridge of high pressure aloft persists over the
region. Forecast highs continue to soar into the upper 90s to low 100s
outside of the immediate coastal areas of central and southern California,
with high temperatures reaching as high as the low 110s for the interior
portions of the Desert Southwest. Numerous daily record-tying or
record-breaking high temperatures are expected to occur across the region
going through Monday. Heat-related advisories and warnings are in place as
this persistent level of major to extreme heat remains a danger to anyone
without adequate air-conditioning or hydration, and for those spending
greater time outdoors. While not quite as hot, highs will trend above
average again for most of the rest of the Intermountain West as well, with
highs in the 70s and low 80s for the northern Great Basin/Rockies and into
the mid-80s for the central Great Basin. These very warm temperatures will
also spread east out into the northern/central Plains through the early to
middle part of this week. Some areas of the northern Plains by Tuesday and
Wednesday will likely see high temperatures that are 20 to 25 degrees
above average, with temperatures reaching the upper 70s and low 80s.

Orrison/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 09 2024 - 12Z Sun Oct 13 2024


...Hurricane Milton could bring life-threatening impacts across
parts of Florida through Wednesday...


...Overview...

Hurricane Milton is currently located in the western Gulf of
Mexico and is forecast to continue to track generally east-
northeastward across the Gulf while strengthening a major
hurricane. Milton should be approaching the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula by early Wednesday, and though it may weaken a
bit before landfall, heavy rainfall/flooding, high wind, and storm
surge are all significant threats. Elsewhere, an upper trough
(anchored by an upper low that may track over or near New England)
will move through the East midweek while an upstream upper ridge
tracks from the West to Central U.S. bringing a period of
climatologically warm weather. By later this week, a Pacific trough
may push inland over the West with some generally light
precipitation to accompany.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance continues to suggest Milton will strengthen into a
possibly major hurricane as it tracks east across the Gulf. There
remain some north-south wobbles and uncertainty in the timing, with
plenty of run to run variability. The CMC remains the slowest of
the deterministic models as it has for multiple days. UKMET runs
are on the southern side, while the 12Z GFS came in a bit north
with the track and QPF axis. The 00Z and 12Z ECMWF runs are good
middle ground solutions and are closest to the official track from
the NHC. Timing variability also evident in the latest runs of the
AI/ML models as well. Milton may transition to extratropical quite
quickly Thursday after it crosses the Florida Peninsula.

Farther north with the main jet stream, models are reasonably
agreeable with the pattern early in the period. The 00/06Z and now
newer 12Z guidance has become more agreeable in showing an upper
trough in south-central Canada Friday and moving into the Great
Lakes Saturday that could serve to shunt the northern extent of the
upper ridge southward, along with pushing a cold front
southeastward compared to continuity. Then across the West, the
timing of a trough approaching from the eastern Pacific gets quite
uncertain late week into the weekend without much model or run-to-
run agreement at all. Recent models are generally shallower with
the trough compared to older runs, leading to less support for
moderate to heavy QPF in the Interior West. As of the 00Z/06Z
cycle, the CMC appeared to be a fast outlier compared to the
GFS/EC. Guidance has generally slowed in the 12Z cycle, so the 12Z
CMC's timing of the trough/possible embedded upper low progression
is now pretty similar to the 00/06Z runs of the GFS and EC, while
the 12Z GFS/EC have slowed even further. Expect changes to this
aspect of the forecast since models are waffling so much at this
time.

The WPC forecast was based on a blend of the deterministic 00Z
ECMWF, 06Z GFS, and some 00Z UKMET early in the period, with
increasing proportions of the ensemble means to half by Day 6 and
over half Day 7 given the uncertainty particularly in the West.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the
west coast of Florida by the start of the medium range period
Wednesday. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm
surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula beginning potentially even Tuesday night.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 5 to 10
inches of rainfall with local amounts to 15 inches is possible for
parts of the Florida Peninsula, but the exact axis is still
uncertain and dependent on on the track Milton takes across
Florida. The highest amounts are likely to be along Milton's track
and north closer to the surface front and upper support. Regardless
of the uncertainty, the ERO for Day 4/Wednesday continues to show
a Moderate Risk across north-central portions of the Peninsula,
including the metro areas of Tampa Bay and Orlando and just south
of Jacksonville, with minimal changes to the previous issuance. By
Thursday, the heaviest rainfall associated with Milton should be
offshore of Florida, though continue to depict a Marginal Risk for
northeast FL to account for possibly slower speed.

Elsewhere, the upper low over/near New England should allow for
some lake-enhanced rain within westerly flow across the Great
Lakes/Interior Northeast on Wednesday. A front passing through the
Pacific Northwest by midweek should produce some light rain and
nonzero chances of snow in the highest elevations. Then another
round of precipitation is likely to come into the West with upper
troughing on Friday, for moderate amounts of rain and some higher
elevation snow in the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation amounts into
the Interior West late week-weekend are more uncertain related to
the evolution of the trough.

The strong and persistent western-central U.S. upper ridge will
promote an extended period of well above normal temperatures over
that part of the country. The highest anomalies are likely for the
northern Plains by Wednesday-Thursday, and some locations should
reach 20-30F above normal as highs in the 80s may extend to the
Canadian border. Northern stream troughing and a cold front could
push the greatest warm anomalies southeast into the central Plains
and Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley Friday-Saturday. Meanwhile height
falls slowly pushing in over the West Coast will support a trend
toward near normal temperatures by Wednesday or Thursday. However,
temperatures around 10 degrees above normal in the Southwest could
set additional daily records though the temperatures have moderated
compared to recent days and the short range. Meanwhile, cooler
than average temperatures are forecast across most of the East as
upper troughing sets up near the East Coast, with some potential
frost/freeze concerns across portions of the Great Lakes region
into the Appalachians and interior Northeast. Expect temperatures
to moderate next weekend as the upper low scoots out of the region.


Tate/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 AM EDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 07 2024 - 00Z Mon Oct 14 2024

Trade winds should remain light to locally moderate through Sunday
which should support some sea breeze showers and clouds. Models
continue to show an upper low developing over the region on Sunday
allowing for some heavier showers and scattered thunderstorms.
After this, the upper low should weaken/eject northeastward
allowing high pressure to strengthen again north of the islands
with stronger trade winds and a more stable pattern to return
through the work week.

Santorelli

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Oct 07 2024 - 12Z Mon Oct 07 2024

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA...

Heavy rains continue to be a threat, mostly across southern FL,
near a front extending east-southeast from a frontal wave in the
Gulf of Mexico. Precipitable water values remain high, near 2.5",
ML CAPE up to 2000 J/kg, and effective bulk shear remains around
25 kts, which could organize activity. With the 18z HREF risks of
3"+, 5"+, and 8"+ as high as they are, left the Moderate Risk level
but pared back the Slight Risk area back to southern FL.

A
Marginal Risk area remains for northeast FL which could have
efficient convection overnight in an environment of 500-1000 J/kg,
effective bulk shear around 25 kts, and precipitable water values
just beyond 2" where the low-level flow is countered by opposing
winds aloft.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 07 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 08 2024

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE MIAMI-
FORT LAUDERDALE METRO...


21z Update...

Moderate Risk added for Miami metro.

A weak surface low currently in the eastern Gulf of Mexico likely
crosses the southern FL Peninsula late tonight/Monday morning and
is likely to provide focus for heavy rain in south Florida through
much of Monday. The HRRR, including the recent 18Z run, has been
consistent with this more progressive approach with the leading low
which seems reasonable and focuses the heaviest swath over the
southern end of the FL Peninsula.

Given this overlap of southern FL with heavy rain from today,
adding the Miami metro to a Moderate is reasonable per request
from WFO MFL. As of now it is continued Slight Risks for the Keys
where a second day of very heavy rain, which at high tide times
may cause flooding due to poor drainage.

Consideration was given to a Moderate Risk for the southwest Coast
south from Ft Myers which may be necessary how much falls there
through tonight. The 18Z HRRR's solution with a farther south
southern max tilted the decision toward leaving the southwest Coast
in a Slight Risk for now

Farther north given the heavy rain from this morning over portions
of the Space Coast, the Slight Risk was shifted north to include
the rest of the Atlantic coast of the MFL CWA.

Wegman/Jackson

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 08 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 09 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...


21Z Update...

Slight Risk expanded to include rest of southern Florida
Peninsula/Keys.

The PRE (predecessor rain event) ahead of Milton will enter its
third and final day over the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday. The
slower solutions to Milton with 12Z runs today suggest the Tampa
Bay area may not see the direct rainfall impacts from Milton until
after 12Z Wednesday.

Given the inherent uncertainty with the track and persistence of
the high PW plume over the Peninsula, the Slight over the
Peninsula was maintained again, with expansion over southern FL due
to heightened sensitivity there from two days of heavy rain.

Predominant southwesterly flow in the trough ahead of Milton's
core circulation will retain at least some heavy rainfall. Given
the areas of heavy rain through Day 2, soils on the Florida
Peninsula at or near saturation, resulting in nearly all of the
rainfall converting to runoff. Thus, progressively less rainfall
will be needed to result in flooding.


Wegman/Jackson

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024


Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the
west coast of Florida by the start of the medium range period
Wednesday. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm
surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula beginning potentially even Tuesday night.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 5 to 10
inches of rainfall with local amounts to 15 inches is possible for
parts of the Florida Peninsula, but the exact axis is still
uncertain and dependent on on the track Milton takes across
Florida. The highest amounts are likely to be along Milton's track
and north closer to the surface front and upper support. Regardless
of the uncertainty, the ERO for Day 4/Wednesday continues to show
a Moderate Risk across north-central portions of the Peninsula,
including the metro areas of Tampa Bay and Orlando and just south
of Jacksonville, with minimal changes to the previous issuance. By
Thursday, the heaviest rainfall associated with Milton should be
offshore of Florida, though continue to depict a Marginal Risk for
northeast FL to account for possibly slower speed.

Elsewhere, the upper low over/near New England should allow for
some lake-enhanced rain within westerly flow across the Great
Lakes/Interior Northeast on Wednesday. A front passing through the
Pacific Northwest by midweek should produce some light rain and
nonzero chances of snow in the highest elevations. Then another
round of precipitation is likely to come into the West with upper
troughing on Friday, for moderate amounts of rain and some higher
elevation snow in the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation amounts into
the Interior West late week-weekend are more uncertain related to
the evolution of the trough.

The strong and persistent western-central U.S. upper ridge will
promote an extended period of well above normal temperatures over
that part of the country. The highest anomalies are likely for the
northern Plains by Wednesday-Thursday, and some locations should
reach 20-30F above normal as highs in the 80s may extend to the
Canadian border. Northern stream troughing and a cold front could
push the greatest warm anomalies southeast into the central Plains
and Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley Friday-Saturday. Meanwhile height
falls slowly pushing in over the West Coast will support a trend
toward near normal temperatures by Wednesday or Thursday. However,
temperatures around 10 degrees above normal in the Southwest could
set additional daily records though the temperatures have moderated
compared to recent days and the short range. Meanwhile, cooler
than average temperatures are forecast across most of the East as
upper troughing sets up near the East Coast, with some potential
frost/freeze concerns across portions of the Great Lakes region
into the Appalachians and interior Northeast. Expect temperatures
to moderate next weekend as the upper low scoots out of the region.


Tate/Santorelli

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024


Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the
west coast of Florida by the start of the medium range period
Wednesday. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm
surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula beginning potentially even Tuesday night.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 5 to 10
inches of rainfall with local amounts to 15 inches is possible for
parts of the Florida Peninsula, but the exact axis is still
uncertain and dependent on on the track Milton takes across
Florida. The highest amounts are likely to be along Milton's track
and north closer to the surface front and upper support. Regardless
of the uncertainty, the ERO for Day 4/Wednesday continues to show
a Moderate Risk across north-central portions of the Peninsula,
including the metro areas of Tampa Bay and Orlando and just south
of Jacksonville, with minimal changes to the previous issuance. By
Thursday, the heaviest rainfall associated with Milton should be
offshore of Florida, though continue to depict a Marginal Risk for
northeast FL to account for possibly slower speed.

Elsewhere, the upper low over/near New England should allow for
some lake-enhanced rain within westerly flow across the Great
Lakes/Interior Northeast on Wednesday. A front passing through the
Pacific Northwest by midweek should produce some light rain and
nonzero chances of snow in the highest elevations. Then another
round of precipitation is likely to come into the West with upper
troughing on Friday, for moderate amounts of rain and some higher
elevation snow in the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation amounts into
the Interior West late week-weekend are more uncertain related to
the evolution of the trough.

The strong and persistent western-central U.S. upper ridge will
promote an extended period of well above normal temperatures over
that part of the country. The highest anomalies are likely for the
northern Plains by Wednesday-Thursday, and some locations should
reach 20-30F above normal as highs in the 80s may extend to the
Canadian border. Northern stream troughing and a cold front could
push the greatest warm anomalies southeast into the central Plains
and Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley Friday-Saturday. Meanwhile height
falls slowly pushing in over the West Coast will support a trend
toward near normal temperatures by Wednesday or Thursday. However,
temperatures around 10 degrees above normal in the Southwest could
set additional daily records though the temperatures have moderated
compared to recent days and the short range. Meanwhile, cooler
than average temperatures are forecast across most of the East as
upper troughing sets up near the East Coast, with some potential
frost/freeze concerns across portions of the Great Lakes region
into the Appalachians and interior Northeast. Expect temperatures
to moderate next weekend as the upper low scoots out of the region.


Tate/Santorelli

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
426 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 07 2024 - 00Z Thu Oct 10 2024

The probability of significant snow and ice across the CONUS is
less than 10 percent.

Jackson

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 09 2024 - 12Z Sun Oct 13 2024


...Hurricane Milton could bring life-threatening impacts across
parts of Florida through Wednesday...


...Overview...

Hurricane Milton is currently located in the western Gulf of
Mexico and is forecast to continue to track generally east-
northeastward across the Gulf while strengthening a major
hurricane. Milton should be approaching the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula by early Wednesday, and though it may weaken a
bit before landfall, heavy rainfall/flooding, high wind, and storm
surge are all significant threats. Elsewhere, an upper trough
(anchored by an upper low that may track over or near New England)
will move through the East midweek while an upstream upper ridge
tracks from the West to Central U.S. bringing a period of
climatologically warm weather. By later this week, a Pacific trough
may push inland over the West with some generally light
precipitation to accompany.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance continues to suggest Milton will strengthen into a
possibly major hurricane as it tracks east across the Gulf. There
remain some north-south wobbles and uncertainty in the timing, with
plenty of run to run variability. The CMC remains the slowest of
the deterministic models as it has for multiple days. UKMET runs
are on the southern side, while the 12Z GFS came in a bit north
with the track and QPF axis. The 00Z and 12Z ECMWF runs are good
middle ground solutions and are closest to the official track from
the NHC. Timing variability also evident in the latest runs of the
AI/ML models as well. Milton may transition to extratropical quite
quickly Thursday after it crosses the Florida Peninsula.

Farther north with the main jet stream, models are reasonably
agreeable with the pattern early in the period. The 00/06Z and now
newer 12Z guidance has become more agreeable in showing an upper
trough in south-central Canada Friday and moving into the Great
Lakes Saturday that could serve to shunt the northern extent of the
upper ridge southward, along with pushing a cold front
southeastward compared to continuity. Then across the West, the
timing of a trough approaching from the eastern Pacific gets quite
uncertain late week into the weekend without much model or run-to-
run agreement at all. Recent models are generally shallower with
the trough compared to older runs, leading to less support for
moderate to heavy QPF in the Interior West. As of the 00Z/06Z
cycle, the CMC appeared to be a fast outlier compared to the
GFS/EC. Guidance has generally slowed in the 12Z cycle, so the 12Z
CMC's timing of the trough/possible embedded upper low progression
is now pretty similar to the 00/06Z runs of the GFS and EC, while
the 12Z GFS/EC have slowed even further. Expect changes to this
aspect of the forecast since models are waffling so much at this
time.

The WPC forecast was based on a blend of the deterministic 00Z
ECMWF, 06Z GFS, and some 00Z UKMET early in the period, with
increasing proportions of the ensemble means to half by Day 6 and
over half Day 7 given the uncertainty particularly in the West.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the
west coast of Florida by the start of the medium range period
Wednesday. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm
surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula beginning potentially even Tuesday night.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 5 to 10
inches of rainfall with local amounts to 15 inches is possible for
parts of the Florida Peninsula, but the exact axis is still
uncertain and dependent on on the track Milton takes across
Florida. The highest amounts are likely to be along Milton's track
and north closer to the surface front and upper support. Regardless
of the uncertainty, the ERO for Day 4/Wednesday continues to show
a Moderate Risk across north-central portions of the Peninsula,
including the metro areas of Tampa Bay and Orlando and just south
of Jacksonville, with minimal changes to the previous issuance. By
Thursday, the heaviest rainfall associated with Milton should be
offshore of Florida, though continue to depict a Marginal Risk for
northeast FL to account for possibly slower speed.

Elsewhere, the upper low over/near New England should allow for
some lake-enhanced rain within westerly flow across the Great
Lakes/Interior Northeast on Wednesday. A front passing through the
Pacific Northwest by midweek should produce some light rain and
nonzero chances of snow in the highest elevations. Then another
round of precipitation is likely to come into the West with upper
troughing on Friday, for moderate amounts of rain and some higher
elevation snow in the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation amounts into
the Interior West late week-weekend are more uncertain related to
the evolution of the trough.

The strong and persistent western-central U.S. upper ridge will
promote an extended period of well above normal temperatures over
that part of the country. The highest anomalies are likely for the
northern Plains by Wednesday-Thursday, and some locations should
reach 20-30F above normal as highs in the 80s may extend to the
Canadian border. Northern stream troughing and a cold front could
push the greatest warm anomalies southeast into the central Plains
and Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley Friday-Saturday. Meanwhile height
falls slowly pushing in over the West Coast will support a trend
toward near normal temperatures by Wednesday or Thursday. However,
temperatures around 10 degrees above normal in the Southwest could
set additional daily records though the temperatures have moderated
compared to recent days and the short range. Meanwhile, cooler
than average temperatures are forecast across most of the East as
upper troughing sets up near the East Coast, with some potential
frost/freeze concerns across portions of the Great Lakes region
into the Appalachians and interior Northeast. Expect temperatures
to moderate next weekend as the upper low scoots out of the region.


Tate/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw