Valid Thu Apr 3, 2025
Valid Fri Apr 4, 2025
Valid Sat Apr 5, 2025
+ Additional Links
- » Description of the National Forecast Chart
- » Product Archives
- » Download hazards in KML or shapefile format or GeoJSON format

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #0113 is currently in effect

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #0112 is currently in effect

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #0111 is currently in effect

Latest Summary for Northern Tier Winter Storm.

Latest Summary for East-central U.S. Multi-day Heavy Rain Event.

Day 1 High Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect






















NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025
Valid 00Z Fri Apr 04 2025 - 00Z Sun Apr 06 2025
...Life-threatening, catastrophic, and potentially historic flash flood
event continues across the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South to Lower
Mississippi Valley...
...A couple rounds of significant severe weather expected from the
Mid-South west through the Ozarks and ArkLaTex with very large hail and
strong tornadoes possible...
...Moderate to locally heavy snow showers expected for the Rockies, with
some snow showers spreading eastward into the High and Northern/Central
Plains...
...Well above average, very warm Spring temperatures to end the week
across the Southeast with numerous record-tying/breaking highs possible...
A powerful Spring storm system will continue to bring the threat of
life-threatening flash flooding and significant severe weather focused on
the Ohio Valley west-southwest through the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley, Mid-South, and ArkLaTex. A leading upper-level shortwave within a
broader large-scale trough over the western/central U.S. and accompanying
surface low pressure/frontal system will press eastward over the Northeast
Thursday night, with a trailing cold front stretching southwestward
through the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, Mid-South, and into the Southern
Plains. The southern part of this frontal boundary is set to stall for the
next few days as a building upper-level ridge over the Southeast keeps it
stationary. The blocking pattern has also focused deep moisture along the
front, which will help to fuel continued rounds of intense
downpour-producing thunderstorms throughout the region, but with a
particular focus centered on the Lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and
Lower Mississippi Valley. Storm initiation and movement roughly parallel
to the boundary will lead to repeated rounds of rainfall over the same
areas, including those already hard hit on Wednesday, leading to
significant to extreme, potentially historic, rainfall totals over
increasingly saturated soils. High Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 4/4)
are now in effect through Saturday. Through Thursday night, areas of
eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee/Kentucky are the most at risk for
possibly widespread life-threatening flash flooding. On Friday, the High
Risk shifts west a bit to be located from southern Missouri across much of
Arkansas and the ArkLaTex as the upper trough pivots and best moisture
inflow shifts west with it. The Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-South and
Arkansas are under a High Risk once again on Saturday over areas that will
saturated if not already flooding by then. Moderate and Slight Risks are
in place for all three days over broader areas of the Ohio Valley into the
south-central U.S. where scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding
can be expected. This is a catastrophic, potentially historic heavy
rainfall and flash flood event, with some locations potentially seeing
rainfall amounts as high as 10-15"+ through the weekend. The repeating
rounds of heavy rainfall each day will also raise the risk of widespread
significant river flooding, including potentially catastrophic major
flooding, in the Ozarks, portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, and
much of the Ohio Valley.
In addition to the flash flood threat, significant severe weather will
also remain a concern for many of the same locations over the next couple
of days. Embedded shortwaves within the broader trough will help to bring
upper-level dynamic support amidst intense low-level southerly flow and
sufficient instability to support supercells. The Storm Prediction Center
has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) from the
Mid-South west through the ArkLaTex through Thursday night for the threat
of a few tornadoes, some of which could be strong, very large hail, and
damaging winds. A broader Slight Risk (level 2/5) extends along the
boundary from the central Appalachians southwest though the Tennessee
Valley/Mid-South and into northern Texas for the threat of large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. On Friday, the risk is raised to
Moderate for the ArkLaTex for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and
damaging winds. Once again a broader Slight Risk is in place from Texas
through the Lower Ohio Valley. Then Saturday, Slight to Enhanced Risks are
delineated for the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Mid-South and Ohio
Valley.
A pair of upper waves and a passing cold front will help support snow
showers over the Rockies as well as bring the chance for some wintry
precipitation to the High and northern/central Plains the next couple of
days. To the north, a northern stream upper wave dropping south from
Canada and accompanying surface cold front will bring moderate to heavy
snows Thursday to the northern Rockies, as well as a wintry mix of rain
and snow spreading eastward into portions of the northern/central Plains
Thursday into Friday. Accumulations are expected to remain light with
snows over the Plains, though a corridor of a few inches of snow could
focus in North Dakota. To the south, an upper-level shortwave in the
broader western/central U.S. trough will pass over the Four Corners region
and central/southern Rockies as an area of low pressure in the lee of the
Rockies helps to focus upslope flow along the mountains. Moderate to
locally heavy snows are expected into Friday for the regional mountain
ranges, with the potential for some snow for portions of the High Plains
along the Front Range. The cold front to the north will also pass
southward by late Friday and into the day Saturday, bringing renewed
post-frontal upslope flow and additional heavy snow for the mountains of
the Front Range. There is also an increasing potential for accumulating
snow spreading further east across the Raton Mesa on Friday and across
portions of the southern High Plains on Saturday.
The amplifying pattern will lead to expanding well above average, warm
Spring temperatures over portions of the eastern U.S. as the upper-level
ridge builds northward, while temperatures will remain much cooler and
below average under the upper-level trough over most of the
western/central U.S. Highs the next couple days across the southeastern
quadrant of the U.S. are forecast to be in the 80s to low 90s, with
numerous record-tying/breaking highs possible. Farther north, the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast should cool to the 50s and 60s for highs on Friday,
and a cool surface high will take hold in the Northeast Saturday for below
normal highs in the 40s. Meanwhile, forecast highs across the Plains into
the Interior West will be mostly well below average. Northern and central
areas of the Rockies and Plains should see high temperatures in the 30s
and 40s on Friday, and southern Rockies/High Plains can expect highs that
are below average by 20-25 degrees by Saturday with actual highs falling
into the 40s. The West Coast can expect warmer, above average temperatures
compared to the rest of the West as a ridge builds northward over the
region, with highs in the 60s and 70s.
Tate/Putnam
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 06 2025 - 12Z Thu Apr 10 2025
...Overview...
The frontal boundary responsible for significant and potentially
historic flooding during the short range period should finally move
east on Sunday as an amplifying upper trough drops into the north-
Central U.S. and interacts with southern stream energy ejecting
northeastward. There will be potential for moderate to locally
heavy rainfall in the Southeast as the front moves through Sunday
into Monday. On the other side of the CONUS, a shortwave moving
into the West will likely support precipitation chances across the
Northwest through early next week. By Tuesday, the forecast should
trend drier across the country as the overall pattern briefly
becomes flatter and more progressive on the way toward a western
ridge/eastern trough configuration.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Model guidance continues to show very good agreement today on the
overall weather pattern through the medium range period. Model
spread tends to increase in the second half of the period, which is
typical at this time frame, which will have some impact on the
finer scale details at the surface. The main question will be with
the strength and timing of troughing/shortwave energy moving toward
the West Coast next week and how that will affect a downstream
system over the Central U.S. on days 6 and 7 (Wednesday and
Thursday). The GFS favors a faster evolution while the ECMWF and
CMC are slower. Overall, the WPC forecast favored a slower
evolution closer to the CMC and ECMWF, which also maintains WPC
forecast continuity.
Given good agreement, the WPC forecast model blend consisted of
even parts of the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET for the first
half of the period, and ensemble means from the GEFS and ECENS were
added for the second half of the period to help smooth out model
differences.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
By the start of the period on Sunday, the front responsible for
significant rainfall over the Lower Mississippi Valley to Ohio
Valley region should finally begin to shift eastward. Moderate to
heavy rain and strong storms are possible along the front from the
Gulf Coast states into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast, and farther
north into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast near the front. The
Sunday ERO shows a Marginal Risk for this region with an embedded
Slight Risk from the Central Gulf Coast into portions of the
Southeast. The Slight Risk area may need to be extended north
across central Alabama and northern Georgia, where model guidance
has been trending wetter. The front may slow for a period across
parts of the Southeast on Monday, and anomalous moisture and
instability favor just a marginal risk for the Day 5 ERO at this
point since current QPF signals are modest at best.
Elsewhere by Monday, a cold upper trough reaching the Great Lakes
should lead to unsettled weather over the region with rain and/or
snow. This precipitation should extend into the Northeast as well.
Latest guidance shows significant differences for surface/upper
evolution over the Northeast early-mid week, with the more extreme
side of the spread producing some significant snowfall over parts
of New England in contrast to much lighter and scattered snow in
the greater proportion of solutions. Probabilities of 0.25 inch
liquid in the form of snow have increased since the last forecast
but still remain below 30 percent during the Tuesday-Tuesday night
period.
Meanwhile upstream, the upper shortwave/front expected to reach
the West Coast early next week will be accompanied by a brief
increase in moisture, but the system will be fairly progressive.
Thus, expect mostly light precipitation with some terrain-enhanced
moderate activity over western Washington/Oregon and northwestern
California, with decreasing amounts inland over the Northwest.
Above normal temperatures will linger along the East Coast into
Sunday with daytime highs 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Meanwhile,
well below normal temperatures will be in place across parts of the
southern Rockies and Plains with daytime highs 10 to 20 degrees.
Moderated below normal temperatures will also shift into the
central U.S. and Midwest Monday and the East by Tuesday-Wednesday.
Highs over and near the Ohio Valley could be up to 15 to 20 degrees
below normal on Tuesday. Warmer than average temperatures initially
over the Northwest this weekend should expand into the remainder of
the West and the northern/central Plains by next week. A
strengthening upper ridge will likely expand coverage of plus 10 to
20 degree anomalies over the West on Wednesday and Thursday.
Dolan/Santorelli
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw
Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Valid 00Z Fri 04 Apr 2025 - 00Z Fri 11 Apr 2025
An upper low well to the north of Hawaii will lift out of the
region by this weekend. The cold front for this system may briefly
stall over northern islands allowing for some increased
precipitation chances, primarily for Kauai. By this weekend and
into next week, a surface high will build to the north of Hawaii
allowing for a return of more typical and breezy trades. Winds may
relax briefly mid next week as a weak shortwave trough moves in
east of the state. The guidance shows excellent agreement on this
fairly quiet pattern over the next week for Hawaii.
Santorelli





































» Extreme Precipitation Monitor
+ Additional Links
- » Product Verification
- » Product Archive
- » Product Info
- » Additional formats of QPF: GRIB 2 | Shapefiles | KML
- » Other QPF Products





+ Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 03 2025 - 12Z Fri Apr 04 2025
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WITH MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED...
..A PROLONGED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD EVENT WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY'S ONCE AGAIN...
...16Z Outlook Update...
The overall forecast philosophy is on track and only minor spatial
adjustments have been made to categorical areas. The High Risk
areas remains in place across portions of Arkansas, Tennessee, and
Kentucky, where a nearly stationary frontal boundary should linger
throughout the day and foster multile rounds of deep convection.
12Z model QPFs suggest another 2-4 inches of rainfall generally
from Little Rock northeastward through south-central Kentucky, with
much of that rain falling on sensitive ground conditions (low to
near-zero FFGs) from prior rainfall and flood impacts last night
and this morning. Significant impacts remain possible, with the
only lingering uncertainty for convective coverage tied to
gradually rising geopotential heights from this afternoon onward.
Little Rock metro was added to the High Risk area after
consultation with WFO LZK, with ongoing high-water impacts
continuing as of this discussion issuance.
The Slight Risk area was expanded eastward into more of West
Virginia, southeastern Kentucky, and Middle Tennessee for this
outlook. Portions of West Virginia have experienced impacts from
heavy rainfall already this morning, and an extensive fetch of
moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to persist much of the day
given renewed convective development across the Mid-South per
latest radar mosaic imagery.
Lastly, Marginal risk areas were maintained across 1) west Texas
for overnight redevelopment of convection in areas that experienced
heavy rainfall this morning and 2) expanded into the
Philadelphia/New York City and adjacent areas for banded/training
convective potential in the 08-12Z timeframe. A quick 0.5-1.25 inch
of rainfall is possible across urban areas of the I-95 corridor,
which could pose a few runoff issues.
See the previous discussion below for more information.
Cook
...Previous Discussion...
Significant rainfall over the past 12-24 hrs will only add to the
favor of widespread flash flooding later this afternoon and evening
as the next round of heavy rainfall occurs as the next surface wave
rides up the quasi-stationary boundary in place across the Lower to
Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Widespread 2-4" of rain with
maxima between 5-6" has fallen this evening across a zone spanning
from southern Arkansas up through western Tennessee and Kentucky
leading to several flash flood warnings as the first surface wave
lifts north. Some overturning of the atmosphere is anticipated by
morning with areal theta_e's decreasing across areas north of the
Ohio River and a tightening instability gradient positioned along
and south of the quasi-stationary front nestled from southwest to
northeast over the Mississippi Valley. Despite some limiting
factors early on, small mid-level perturbations embedded within the
mean flow will still cause some scattered light to moderate
convective development through the morning and afternoon leading to
a continuation of priming from the prior evening.
The nocturnal period will once again become the main period of
interest as the nocturnal LLJ kicks back in across the Deep South
and banks into the stationary front bisecting the Mississippi and
southern Ohio Valley. The same areas that saw the significant rain
and flash flooding this evening will be hit once again with another
wave of convection that will initiate across the ArklaTex and
southern Arkansas and eventually move northeast as the flow aligns
parallel to the stationary front. Additional precip totals of 2-4"
with local to 6" will once again be in the cards for much of
Arkansas, western Tennessee, and southwestern Kentucky which will
ultimately put 48-hr totals between 4-8" with locally up to 10"
during the time frame. Local FFG's are already very low after
today's precip with much of the corridor spanning eastern AR up
through north-central KY exhibiting 1 and 3-hr FFG intervals
running below 1/1.5" respectively. 00z HREF is very much indicating
that rainfall rates during the peak of diurnal convection will
reside within that 1-2"/hr marker with FFG exceedance probabilities
above 50% for the 1/3/6-hr intervals in place. Neighborhood
probabilities for >3" total are between 40-60% across eastern AR
with as high as 60-80% over northwest TN and southwestern KY. >5"
neighborhood probs are running between 25-40% within the same
corridor, backed up by EAS probs >2" sufficiently above 50% along
the Mississippi north of Memphis to points northeast.
Despite the overall output being slightly lower than what occurred
this evening, the prescience has been set for significant flood
potential given the already saturated soils, expected rates, and
regional rivers running high from the previous period of rainfall.
The previous High Risk inherited was generally maintained with
small adjustments accounting for recent rainfall trends, updated
FFG's, and encompassing elevated probabilities from both the hi-res
and national ensemble blends. A Moderate Risk still in effect for
a large area surrounding the High Risk in place across the Lower to
Mid-Mississippi Valley with a span that covers areas of southwest
Arkansas up to as far northeast as Cincinnati.
This is quickly becoming a high-end flash flood scenario with
another day or two of rainfall expected on top of what has occurred
and what will occur. If you lie within a flood plane or any area
that is prone to flash flooding across Arkansas, western Tennessee,
and western Kentucky, you will want to pay close attention and
have a plan to seek higher ground, if possible.
Kleebauer
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 04 2025 - 12Z Sat Apr 05 2025
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...
...21Z Outlook Update...
Both global models and CAMs have come into agreement with
development of at least one north-northeast to south-southwest
oriented band of convection located generally from the ArkLaTex
into southeastern Missouri. Convection should be oriented generally
parallel to fast, meridionally oriented flow aloft, with abundant
moisture, low- level shear, and instability profiles all favoring
abundant rainfall (potentially exceeding 10 inches on a localized
basis). These totals will fall on areas that will have experienced
2-6 inches of rainfall leading up to the forecast period, with wet
soils/terrain variations all suggestive of a potentially widespread
and significant flash flood event.
Expansion of Moderate Risk (and attendant probabilities) was
considered across more of Illinois and central Indiana, but pre-
existing dry conditions and uncertainty about duration of
precipitation were mitigating factors for a higher flash flood
threat. This region will be evaluated for a possible upgrade in
later outlooks.
Outside of these changes, the overall outlook was on track with an
eventual broad axis of heavy precipitation expected from
north/central Texas northeastward to Ohio/Pennsylvania.
See the previous forecast discussion below for more details.
Cook
...Previous Discussion...
The previous synoptic scale forecast was relatively unchanged
within the run to run assessment over the course of Friday into
Saturday morning. The final surface wave within the atmospheric
parade across the Southern Plains to Mississippi Valley will show
itself by late- Friday morning through the remainder of the period.
This wave will likely be the strongest of the 3 allowing a much
more amplified surface evolution that will shift the focus of
heavier precip further northwest while also providing some vigor in
the overall QPF distribution. The trend the past 48 hrs is for a
zone of significant (3-6+") totals to be recognized across portions
of the Southern Plains up through the Ozarks and Mid-Mississippi
Valley of Missouri, spanning as far north as south- central
Illinois. When assessing the theta_e environment, there is a
noticeable push north of more modestly unstable air with the most
pertinent area of available instability situated across southern MO
down through AR, southeastern OK, and even northeastern TX. A
sharp uptick in regional PWATs with deviations between +3 to +4 anomaly-
wise are forecast within that zone correlating with a substantial
rise in area convection blossoming late Friday afternoon, onward.
This setup is fortunately further west compared to the previous
periods, so the overlap of the heaviest rainfall is not anticipated
to be as problematic as the previous period.
Having said that, the pattern will yield high precip totals due to
widespread convective activity, falling over some areas that will
have seen appreciable rain, and over other areas that are more
prone to flooding due to complex terrain situated over the Ozarks.
The pattern is such that several areas from east of DFW up through
IL will see rainfall amounts of 3-6" with locally higher beginning
Friday afternoon with the heaviest rainfall likely to occur by the
evening with the implementation of yet another LLJ structure
thanks to the surface wave mentioned previously. Further to the
west, another closed upper reflection across the Southwest U.S.
will only entice greater upper forcing within a broad axis of
difluence situated over the Plains. This setup is more privy to
convection forming as far west as the Western Rolling Plains of TX
to points east and northeast. Even there, modest 1-2" with locally
higher totals are forecast in-of those zones. The heaviest
precipitation axis based off the latest NBM probabilities still has
a significant footprint of at least 3" located near the Dallas
metro and points just east (40-60%) to as high as 60-80% in a large
area spanning the Red River of northeast TX up through much of
western and northern AR, through the Ozarks of MO, finally reaching
the Mississippi River south of St.Louis. Ensemble mean QPF output
signals a massive area of at least 2" with urban centers like
Dallas, Little Rock, St. Louis, and Springfield, MO all within a
core of the heavy precip footprint.
Considering the probabilistic output of the NBM, the consistency
within guidance for a significant corridor of very heavy rainfall,
and a well-defined axis of training precip potential, a broad
Moderate Risk was maintained and even expanded to account for the
expanse of likely flash flooding. A high-end Moderate is a likely
tag for places within southeast OK up through western and northern
AR through the Ozarks of Missouri as these areas will have the
greatest threat of enhanced rates over top of either complex
terrain or primed soils. An upgrade is plausible in future updates
pending additional convective probability details.
Kleebauer
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 05 2025 - 12Z Sun Apr 06 2025
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
OZARKS AND LOWER TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WITH MAJOR FLOODING
EXPECTED...
..LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING..
...21Z Outlook Update...
Substantial changes were made to the ongoing outlook with the
expectation that deep, slow-moving and intense convection would
still be ongoing across Arkansas at 12Z Saturday. The High Risk
expansion in Arkansas is essentially a continuation of the
significant flash flood threat from the D2/Fri forecast period.
South-soutwesterly flow aloft at the start of the period is
expected to continue fostering a very slow eastward progression of
convection, while 1.75+ PW values,, 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE, and
convective training/mergers should continue to foster high to
locally extreme rain rates and FFG exceedence on a widespread
basis. At least 3-5 inch rainfall totals are expected, with locally
higher amounts possible.
Eventually, veering flow aloft will result in a faster forward
speed of any convective complex(es) toward the Ohio and Tennessee
River Valleys during the latter half of the forecast period. As
this occurs, low FFGs are expected to remain from abundant
antecedent rainfall, and it is very likely that ground conditions
will not have completely recovered from abundant antecedent
rainfall. In this scenario, widespread significant impacts are
expected with both ongoing and newer instances of flash flooding.
Additional details are available in the previous discussion below.
Cook
...Previous Discussion...
The combination of intense right-entrance region jet dynamics,
highly anomalous atmospheric moisture, and very saturated
antecedent soil moisture will lead to another high impact flash
flood forecast for Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning across
the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley. This threat will extend
further east as a cold front helps finally sweep the stagnant
pattern out of the region, but not before another round of heavy
rainfall inundates areas that will be sensitive to any appreciable
rainfall.
A stout 190-200kt upper jet located over the Great Lakes will lend
to a pronounced upper ascent pattern situated over the Mississippi
Valley during the period. At the surface, our quasi-stationary
front that will linger through the course of several days will
still be confined to similar areas that have been impacted by its
presence in the days prior. Upper low located over the Southwest
U.S. will begin to open up and eject eastward, becoming sheared on
the northern edge due to an amplifying trough digging out of
Canada. To the east, our Western Atlantic ridge that has provided a
stalemate to any frontal progression moving east of the Mississippi
will provide one last period of favorable low to mid-level
convergence as the pattern evolves with the large trough to the
west countering the ridge across the Southeast. In the middle of
the atmospheric squeeze-play, elevated moisture presence and
favorable instability will remain present to be activated with the
addition of diurnal destabilization and increasingly favorable
ascent to match. The combination will allow for a rapid development
of widespread convection across the Missouri Valley with slow
advancement eastward towards the Low to Mid-Mississippi Valley
convergence point.
This setup has trended prolific in the QPF realm of the forecast
with very little deviation in all major deterministic at this
juncture. An expanse of 3-6" with locally up to 8" of rainfall is
forecast across a large portion of Arkansas extending east-
northeast through far southeastern Missouri, all of western and
central Tennessee and Kentucky, to as far north as the
Ohio/Kentucky border along the Ohio River. Northwest Mississippi
will also lie within the axis of heaviest precipitation leading to
quite a large area of not only heavy precip, but significant
overlap of areas that will have super saturated grounds that will
struggle to maintain the ability to absorb more rainfall. This
setup will yield a very dangerous scenario where widespread flash
flooding with considerable and potentially catastrophic impacts
would be favored. The agreement among all major NWP for substantial
rainfall totals and projected hourly rates >1-2"/hr is a testament
to the overall gravity of what is to come.
In coordination with the local WFO's across Arkansas, Tennessee,
and Kentucky...a High Risk area for excessive rainfall has been
added over central and eastern AR, all of western TN and KY, far
southeastern MO, and the southern edge of IN. Additional storm
totals will bring multi-day amounts between 8-12" with some areas
potentially reaching as high as 14" over the span of 5 days. A
broad Moderate Risk spans the outer perimeter of the High Risk
leading to several more areas prone to significant flash flood
concerns due to the setup. This is becoming an increasingly
life-threatening situation for areas of the Lower and Mid-
Mississippi Valley region.
Kleebauer
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
By the start of the period on Sunday, the front responsible for
significant rainfall over the Lower Mississippi Valley to Ohio
Valley region should finally begin to shift eastward. Moderate to
heavy rain and strong storms are possible along the front from the
Gulf Coast states into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast, and farther
north into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast near the front. The
Sunday ERO shows a Marginal Risk for this region with an embedded
Slight Risk from the Central Gulf Coast into portions of the
Southeast. The Slight Risk area may need to be extended north
across central Alabama and northern Georgia, where model guidance
has been trending wetter. The front may slow for a period across
parts of the Southeast on Monday, and anomalous moisture and
instability favor just a marginal risk for the Day 5 ERO at this
point since current QPF signals are modest at best.
Elsewhere by Monday, a cold upper trough reaching the Great Lakes
should lead to unsettled weather over the region with rain and/or
snow. This precipitation should extend into the Northeast as well.
Latest guidance shows significant differences for surface/upper
evolution over the Northeast early-mid week, with the more extreme
side of the spread producing some significant snowfall over parts
of New England in contrast to much lighter and scattered snow in
the greater proportion of solutions. Probabilities of 0.25 inch
liquid in the form of snow have increased since the last forecast
but still remain below 30 percent during the Tuesday-Tuesday night
period.
Meanwhile upstream, the upper shortwave/front expected to reach
the West Coast early next week will be accompanied by a brief
increase in moisture, but the system will be fairly progressive.
Thus, expect mostly light precipitation with some terrain-enhanced
moderate activity over western Washington/Oregon and northwestern
California, with decreasing amounts inland over the Northwest.
Above normal temperatures will linger along the East Coast into
Sunday with daytime highs 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Meanwhile,
well below normal temperatures will be in place across parts of the
southern Rockies and Plains with daytime highs 10 to 20 degrees.
Moderated below normal temperatures will also shift into the
central U.S. and Midwest Monday and the East by Tuesday-Wednesday.
Highs over and near the Ohio Valley could be up to 15 to 20 degrees
below normal on Tuesday. Warmer than average temperatures initially
over the Northwest this weekend should expand into the remainder of
the West and the northern/central Plains by next week. A
strengthening upper ridge will likely expand coverage of plus 10 to
20 degree anomalies over the West on Wednesday and Thursday.
Dolan/Santorelli
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
By the start of the period on Sunday, the front responsible for
significant rainfall over the Lower Mississippi Valley to Ohio
Valley region should finally begin to shift eastward. Moderate to
heavy rain and strong storms are possible along the front from the
Gulf Coast states into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast, and farther
north into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast near the front. The
Sunday ERO shows a Marginal Risk for this region with an embedded
Slight Risk from the Central Gulf Coast into portions of the
Southeast. The Slight Risk area may need to be extended north
across central Alabama and northern Georgia, where model guidance
has been trending wetter. The front may slow for a period across
parts of the Southeast on Monday, and anomalous moisture and
instability favor just a marginal risk for the Day 5 ERO at this
point since current QPF signals are modest at best.
Elsewhere by Monday, a cold upper trough reaching the Great Lakes
should lead to unsettled weather over the region with rain and/or
snow. This precipitation should extend into the Northeast as well.
Latest guidance shows significant differences for surface/upper
evolution over the Northeast early-mid week, with the more extreme
side of the spread producing some significant snowfall over parts
of New England in contrast to much lighter and scattered snow in
the greater proportion of solutions. Probabilities of 0.25 inch
liquid in the form of snow have increased since the last forecast
but still remain below 30 percent during the Tuesday-Tuesday night
period.
Meanwhile upstream, the upper shortwave/front expected to reach
the West Coast early next week will be accompanied by a brief
increase in moisture, but the system will be fairly progressive.
Thus, expect mostly light precipitation with some terrain-enhanced
moderate activity over western Washington/Oregon and northwestern
California, with decreasing amounts inland over the Northwest.
Above normal temperatures will linger along the East Coast into
Sunday with daytime highs 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Meanwhile,
well below normal temperatures will be in place across parts of the
southern Rockies and Plains with daytime highs 10 to 20 degrees.
Moderated below normal temperatures will also shift into the
central U.S. and Midwest Monday and the East by Tuesday-Wednesday.
Highs over and near the Ohio Valley could be up to 15 to 20 degrees
below normal on Tuesday. Warmer than average temperatures initially
over the Northwest this weekend should expand into the remainder of
the West and the northern/central Plains by next week. A
strengthening upper ridge will likely expand coverage of plus 10 to
20 degree anomalies over the West on Wednesday and Thursday.
Dolan/Santorelli







» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 4-7)
» Winter Storm Severity Index
» Experimental Probabilistic Precipitation Portal
+ Forecast Discussion (Day 1-3)
Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Valid 00Z Fri Apr 04 2025 - 00Z Mon Apr 07 2025
...Portions of the Rockies and the High Plains...
Days 1,2...
A deep upper level trough over much of the Intermountain West and
associated embedded upper level low over the Southwest will
gradually shift east onto the Plains through Saturday. Shortwave
disturbances moving around both the upper low and a secondary wave
moving along the Canadian border will provide the forcing for
wintry weather over and immediately downwind of those upper level
features.
For Day 1/Tonight through Friday, a potent trough over the Canadian
Prairies will dig southeastward into Montana and the Dakotas. This
will lead to pressure and height falls in the region. Troughing
developing as a response will draw a small portion of the Gulf
moisture plume into the northern Plains, supporting a widespread
generally light snowfall over Montana and the Dakotas. For the
mountains from the Bitterroots of Montana south to the Front Range
of Colorado, localized upslope along the terrain will cause much
heavier snowfall rates and amounts, especially in the Beartooths of
Montana and Bighorns of Wyoming, where new snowfall could approach
a foot through midday Friday. WPC probabilities are over 50% for 4
inches or more of snow for the Front Range of Colorado and the
Beartooths of Montana and Wyoming.
For Day 2/Friday Night and Saturday, the shortwave moving along the
Canadian border will shift east into the Great Lakes, leaving the
area. However, the upper level low/southern extension of the
broader upper trough will begin to tap ever-increasing amounts of
Gulf moisture as the lift ahead of the low moves in closer
proximity to the trough. This will draw more of that moisture
westward into the southern High Plains as the low-level jet
increases in both strength and amounts of Gulf moisture it will be
drawing northward into the nation's mid-section. Upslope will play
an even greater role here, especially as the leeside surface trough
develops over eastern New Mexico. Some of the troughing from the
northern system from Day 1 in the northern Plains will propagate
straight southward along the Front Range and support the heavy
snow. The Sangre de Cristo Mountains of Colorado and New Mexico
will be the range hardest hit with heavy snow, with WPC
probabilities for over 8 inches of snow in the moderate-to-high
(50-70%) range through Saturday evening. The WPC Winter Storm
Severity Index (WSSI) shows areas along the state line near Raton
Mesa with major impacts from the large snowfall expected. The snow
will taper off in the area Saturday night.
...Northern New England...
Day 3...
A strong upper level trough over Hudson Bay Saturday will direct a
strong shortwave along its southeastern periphery towards New
England. Meanwhile, a portion of the moisture associated with the
excessive rainfall over the nation's mid-section will draw
northeastward into the Northeast and New England. Here, that Gulf
moisture will interact with some lingering cold air over the
region, resulting in a variety of precipitation types over the
area. For areas south and west over northern New Hampshire and far
western Maine, a significant icing event is expected as warmer air
above freezing moves in aloft above the cold air in place,
resulting in precipitation changing over from snow to sleet and
freezing rain as the warm air moves in and deepens Saturday night.
There is a moderate-to-high (50-70%) chance of at least a tenth
(0.10") of an inch of ice across much of northern New Hampshire and
far western Maine near the New Hampshire border through Saturday
night, with a low (10-30%) chance of at least a quarter of an inch
of ice.
Further north where the warmer/above freezing air is unable to
reach, a light snowfall is expected, namely for far northern Maine,
where there is a low-to-moderate (30-50%) chance of at least an
inch of snow Saturday night. The moisture plume will shift east
with the cold front Sunday morning, ending the winter precipitation
threat.
Wegman





NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 06 2025 - 12Z Thu Apr 10 2025
...Overview...
The frontal boundary responsible for significant and potentially
historic flooding during the short range period should finally move
east on Sunday as an amplifying upper trough drops into the north-
Central U.S. and interacts with southern stream energy ejecting
northeastward. There will be potential for moderate to locally
heavy rainfall in the Southeast as the front moves through Sunday
into Monday. On the other side of the CONUS, a shortwave moving
into the West will likely support precipitation chances across the
Northwest through early next week. By Tuesday, the forecast should
trend drier across the country as the overall pattern briefly
becomes flatter and more progressive on the way toward a western
ridge/eastern trough configuration.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Model guidance continues to show very good agreement today on the
overall weather pattern through the medium range period. Model
spread tends to increase in the second half of the period, which is
typical at this time frame, which will have some impact on the
finer scale details at the surface. The main question will be with
the strength and timing of troughing/shortwave energy moving toward
the West Coast next week and how that will affect a downstream
system over the Central U.S. on days 6 and 7 (Wednesday and
Thursday). The GFS favors a faster evolution while the ECMWF and
CMC are slower. Overall, the WPC forecast favored a slower
evolution closer to the CMC and ECMWF, which also maintains WPC
forecast continuity.
Given good agreement, the WPC forecast model blend consisted of
even parts of the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET for the first
half of the period, and ensemble means from the GEFS and ECENS were
added for the second half of the period to help smooth out model
differences.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
By the start of the period on Sunday, the front responsible for
significant rainfall over the Lower Mississippi Valley to Ohio
Valley region should finally begin to shift eastward. Moderate to
heavy rain and strong storms are possible along the front from the
Gulf Coast states into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast, and farther
north into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast near the front. The
Sunday ERO shows a Marginal Risk for this region with an embedded
Slight Risk from the Central Gulf Coast into portions of the
Southeast. The Slight Risk area may need to be extended north
across central Alabama and northern Georgia, where model guidance
has been trending wetter. The front may slow for a period across
parts of the Southeast on Monday, and anomalous moisture and
instability favor just a marginal risk for the Day 5 ERO at this
point since current QPF signals are modest at best.
Elsewhere by Monday, a cold upper trough reaching the Great Lakes
should lead to unsettled weather over the region with rain and/or
snow. This precipitation should extend into the Northeast as well.
Latest guidance shows significant differences for surface/upper
evolution over the Northeast early-mid week, with the more extreme
side of the spread producing some significant snowfall over parts
of New England in contrast to much lighter and scattered snow in
the greater proportion of solutions. Probabilities of 0.25 inch
liquid in the form of snow have increased since the last forecast
but still remain below 30 percent during the Tuesday-Tuesday night
period.
Meanwhile upstream, the upper shortwave/front expected to reach
the West Coast early next week will be accompanied by a brief
increase in moisture, but the system will be fairly progressive.
Thus, expect mostly light precipitation with some terrain-enhanced
moderate activity over western Washington/Oregon and northwestern
California, with decreasing amounts inland over the Northwest.
Above normal temperatures will linger along the East Coast into
Sunday with daytime highs 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Meanwhile,
well below normal temperatures will be in place across parts of the
southern Rockies and Plains with daytime highs 10 to 20 degrees.
Moderated below normal temperatures will also shift into the
central U.S. and Midwest Monday and the East by Tuesday-Wednesday.
Highs over and near the Ohio Valley could be up to 15 to 20 degrees
below normal on Tuesday. Warmer than average temperatures initially
over the Northwest this weekend should expand into the remainder of
the West and the northern/central Plains by next week. A
strengthening upper ridge will likely expand coverage of plus 10 to
20 degree anomalies over the West on Wednesday and Thursday.
Dolan/Santorelli
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw
Displays flood and flash flood reports as well as intense rainfall observations for user-selectable time ranges and customizable geographic regions. Includes ability to download reports and associated metadata in csv format.

Plots of GEFS probabilistic forecast of precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure exceeding various thresholds.

Custom plots of Local Storm Reports across the Contiguous United States. Reports include rain, snow, ice, and severe weather, as well as other significant information from storm spotters.

Displays the climatological significance of precipitation forecast by WPC. The climatological significance is represented by Average Recurrence Intervals (ARIs) of precipitation estimates from NOAA Atlas-14 and Atlas2.

An interactive situational awareness table that displays anomalies, percentiles, and return intervals from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF Ensembles (login required to view ECMWF data).
*Please note that there is currently an issue where only users on a NOAA network can access this page. We are actively working to resolve this problem.

Interactive display of where temperatures could approach or exceed records within the contiguous U.S. (based on NDFD temperature forecasts)

Displays Days 1-7 NDFD maximum and minimum temperatures, along with their respective departures from climatology.

An interactive tool that depicts areas of heavy snowfall from individual members of high-resolution short range ensemble forecasts.
Displays forecast information and its climatological context to quickly alert a forecaster when a record or neear-record breaking event is possible. This tool is available for both CONUS and Alaska.

Displays 0-72 hour cyclone forecast positions from global ensemble and deterministic model guidance.

Change in weather parameters (temperature, dewpoint, surface pressure, etc) over the last 1/3/6/24 hours. Data is provided from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) or the Rapid Refresh (RAP).

The experimental National Weather Service (NWS) HeatRisk is a color-numeric-based index that provides a forecast of the potential level of risk for heat-related impacts to occur over a 24-hour period, with forecasts available out through 7 days.

Analog guidance that uses an objective approach to find historical events that are similar to the upcoming forecast.

Nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance.