Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 08 2026 - 00Z Tue Feb 10 2026

... Dangerous Arctic airmass will persist over the eastern Great
Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Sunday...

...A Pacific system will bring lower elevation rain and
high-elevation snow from the Pacific Northwest to the northern
Rockies...

...Warmer-than-average temperatures continue for much of the
central to western U.S....

An Arctic airmass filtering down across the eastern Great Lakes,
Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will persist through
Sunday in the wake of a cold front exiting off the East Coast and
with high pressure dropping south from Canada. A combination of
record low max temperatures and record low min temperatures will
be possible especially across the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday with
temperatures in general about 20 to 30+ degrees below normal.
Strong winds going through this evening and overnight coupled with
temperatures dropping down into the single digits and locally
below zero across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will
result in dangerously cold wind chills. These wind chills may
reach as low as 30 degrees below zero across New York and the
interior of New England. These wind chills will pose a
life-threatening risk of hypothermia and frostbite to exposed
skin. Meanwhile, some lingering snowfall will be expected this
evening across southeast New England as a coastal trough and the
aforementioned cold front linger nearby, but conditions will
improve overnight as these features exit out to sea.

A modest atmospheric river event impacting the Pacific Northwest
this evening will advance farther inland through Sunday and Monday
into portions of the northern Rockies and also impacting areas as
far south as northern California. Moist onshore flow will favor
areas of moderate to heavy rain for the coastal ranges of western
Washington, Oregon and northwest California, with heavy
accumulating snowfall expected farther inland across the higher
terrain of the Cascades and the northern Rockies. As much as 1 to
3 inches of rain will be possible, especially for the lower
elevations of western Oregon, with upwards of 1 to 2 feet of snow
expected for the high terrain of the Cascades and the northern
Rockies.

Warmer-than-average temperatures will continue into early next
week across much of the central to western U.S. under the
influence of an upper-level ridge of high pressure. The greatest
temperature anomalies will be focused over the northern and
central Plains, where highs in the 50s, 60s, and even low 70s are
expected which will be as much as 30 to 40 degrees above normal
for early February. Highs for the Intermountain West will also be
in the 50s and 60s while the southern Plains, Southwest, and
southern California will see highs in the 70s to mid-80s. Highs
will be closer to average further north along the West Coast due
to the incoming Pacific cold front, with 40s and 50s for the
Pacific Northwest and 50s and 60s into central and northern
California.

The mild temperatures across much of the Plains will be
accompanied generally by a lot of dry air, and the resulting low
relative humidity combined with gusty winds will promote locally
critical fire weather conditions. This will especially be the case
through this evening across areas of southeast Wyoming, western
Nebraska and northeast Colorado.

Orrison/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026


...Overview...

An initial upper low over northern Mexico as the period begins
Tuesday will move into the southern Plains and weaken as it gets
shunted off to to the Southeast. This should bring some
precipitation across the south-central U.S. to Ohio Valley and
Southeast through Wednesday. Behind this, another trough looks to
dive down the West Coast with additional energy entering the
Southwest late week allowing for renewed moisture and expansion of
precipitation across parts of the central to eastern states next
weekend. Northern stream energy is forecast to bring additional
rounds of precipitation into the Northwest and Intermountain West
late week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance continues to show good large scale agreement with
the initial low over northern Mexico as it shifts eastward,
weakens, and becomes absorbed by the larger scale flow. There
remain some uncertainties in the details which will impact
sensible weather and associated precipitation coverage, but we have
seen better agreement evolve with the 12z guidance. It is now
clear that the southern and northern stream energy will remain
separate Tuesday into Wednesday, which should allow for a warmer
solution and less of a threat of winter impacts with the southern
stream system.

The greatest source of uncertainty continues to be with the west
coast troughing by mid to late week and how/when that energy moves
eastward across the country. Today's model trend was for the
GFS/ECMWF to trend closer to the AI model suite (EC
AIFS/AIGFS/AIGEFS) with a slower evolution of this west coast
trough. This delays the stronger system that should eventually move
across the country Friday into next weekend. While we can not say
confidence is high that this trend will persist, we will note that
most of the AI model suite has been in this camp for several runs.
This seemingly adds a bit more confidence to the 12z GFS/EC/CMC
trend than an abrupt shift like this normally would. Thus tend to
think we will see the overall ensemble data/NBM evolve in this
direction. While confidence may be increasing in this slower
solution, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the
details of how the trough/low evolves and the latitude it tracks.

In between these two systems there remains the potential for a
weaker system to move from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday
and Friday within the mid-level northwesterly flow. Quite a bit of
uncertainty with this feature related to the depth of the eastern
U.S. trough and strength of the shortwave energy diving southeast.
The 12z EC/CMC keep a signal for sensible weather impacts, but the
GFS and AI guidance generally keep things dry.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The aforementioned northern stream energy will bring some light
snow accumulations to portions of the Northeast Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Farther south, light to moderate rain is forecast from
the OH/TN valley into the Southeast. Given the trend for more
separation between streams, wintry weather impacts appear less
likely with this feature, although a small corridor of mixed
precipitation is still possible along the northern edge of the
precipitation shield.

The trough/closed low moving into CA will bring rain and mountain
snow to the state Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into the Great
Basin by Wednesday. This feature has trended stronger today, and
thus rainfall and high elevation snow amount potential has
increased. While the AI guidance has shown this for a few model
cycles now, the physical models are just now trending in that
direction. While still not expecting major rain or snow totals,
there is the potential for upwards of 1-2" of rain across the
coastal ranges of southern CA. We will not introduce any Marginal
risk yet, but if models continue to trend then can not rule out a
localized flood risk and will continue to monitor.

It seems like this feature has a pretty good chance of being our
next large impactful system that tracks eastward across the
country Friday into next weekend. As mentioned above, we have seen
some model convergence regarding this evolution, although there
remains considerable uncertainty regarding the details of how the
trough/low evolves and the latitude it tracks. These differences
will play a major role in sensible weather impacts from this
system. So while heavy rain in the warm sector and wintry precip to
the north of the system are all probable it is too early to give
much insight regarding those details.

Another front may bring increasing precipitation chances to the
pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend as well. Lots of model
spread with these details though, and would expect to see
significant forecast changes with regards to both the timing ans
strength of this system over the coming days.

Not seeing much of a signal for hazardous temperatures during this
period, with the main story being above normal temperatures from
the Plains into the Southeast and near normal temperatures from
the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast.


Chenard/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026
Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Feb 07 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Tate

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Tate

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Tate

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 08 2026 - 00Z Wed Feb 11 2026


...Southeast New England...
Day 1...

Ongoing convergent banding over southeast New England will continue
to shunt east as it gets further undercut by the Arctic cold front
which will shift offshore late evening. Remaining snow should taper
off this evening.


...Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies...
Days 1-2...

A trough axis pushes across western WA this evening with the
leading moisture axis maintaining moderate precip rates until the
overnight when they are shunted south. Snow levels on the WA
Cascades decrease from 6000ft to 4000ft tonight under height
falls.
The primary trough axis pushes onshore the PacNW Sunday evening.
This
wave will then continue to track east while deamplifying, reaching
the northern High Plains Monday.

This trough evolution will be accompanied by a modest subtropical
jet streak arcing meridionally downstream to provide overlapping
synoptic ascent. This lift will occur into a moistening column as
persistent SW flow ahead of the shortwave/trough axis will provide
a long duration of moisture advection with two rounds of heavy
precipitation extending from Oregon through the Northern Rockies.
Day 1 snow probs for >6" are 40-80% for the WA/OR Cascades above
about 5000ft and over the northern Rockies. Day 2 snow probs for
>6" are similar to Day 1 for the Cascades, but much greater across
the northern Rockies including 50-90% for the Tetons, Absarokas,
Sawtooths, Bitterroots, and through Glacier NP. Snow tapers off
Monday as the trough axis shifts onto the Plains.


...Sierra Nevada and Great Basin...
Day 3...

The next shortwave trough from the Pacific shifts farther south
than more recent ones, reaching the central/northern CA coast late
Monday night, crossing the Great Basin Tuesday night. Snow levels
of 6000 to 7000ft can be expected on the Sierra Nevada with the
early snow Monday night and 5000 to 6000ft Tuesday as the trough
axis approaches. Day 3 snow probs for >6" are 50-80% over the
length of the Sierra Nevada. A welcome sight for skiers and those
with Sierra hydrology interests.


Jackson



...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect and linked below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026


...Overview...

An initial upper low over northern Mexico as the period begins
Tuesday will move into the southern Plains and weaken as it gets
shunted off to to the Southeast. This should bring some
precipitation across the south-central U.S. to Ohio Valley and
Southeast through Wednesday. Behind this, another trough looks to
dive down the West Coast with additional energy entering the
Southwest late week allowing for renewed moisture and expansion of
precipitation across parts of the central to eastern states next
weekend. Northern stream energy is forecast to bring additional
rounds of precipitation into the Northwest and Intermountain West
late week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance continues to show good large scale agreement with
the initial low over northern Mexico as it shifts eastward,
weakens, and becomes absorbed by the larger scale flow. There
remain some uncertainties in the details which will impact
sensible weather and associated precipitation coverage, but we have
seen better agreement evolve with the 12z guidance. It is now
clear that the southern and northern stream energy will remain
separate Tuesday into Wednesday, which should allow for a warmer
solution and less of a threat of winter impacts with the southern
stream system.

The greatest source of uncertainty continues to be with the west
coast troughing by mid to late week and how/when that energy moves
eastward across the country. Today's model trend was for the
GFS/ECMWF to trend closer to the AI model suite (EC
AIFS/AIGFS/AIGEFS) with a slower evolution of this west coast
trough. This delays the stronger system that should eventually move
across the country Friday into next weekend. While we can not say
confidence is high that this trend will persist, we will note that
most of the AI model suite has been in this camp for several runs.
This seemingly adds a bit more confidence to the 12z GFS/EC/CMC
trend than an abrupt shift like this normally would. Thus tend to
think we will see the overall ensemble data/NBM evolve in this
direction. While confidence may be increasing in this slower
solution, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the
details of how the trough/low evolves and the latitude it tracks.

In between these two systems there remains the potential for a
weaker system to move from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday
and Friday within the mid-level northwesterly flow. Quite a bit of
uncertainty with this feature related to the depth of the eastern
U.S. trough and strength of the shortwave energy diving southeast.
The 12z EC/CMC keep a signal for sensible weather impacts, but the
GFS and AI guidance generally keep things dry.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The aforementioned northern stream energy will bring some light
snow accumulations to portions of the Northeast Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Farther south, light to moderate rain is forecast from
the OH/TN valley into the Southeast. Given the trend for more
separation between streams, wintry weather impacts appear less
likely with this feature, although a small corridor of mixed
precipitation is still possible along the northern edge of the
precipitation shield.

The trough/closed low moving into CA will bring rain and mountain
snow to the state Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into the Great
Basin by Wednesday. This feature has trended stronger today, and
thus rainfall and high elevation snow amount potential has
increased. While the AI guidance has shown this for a few model
cycles now, the physical models are just now trending in that
direction. While still not expecting major rain or snow totals,
there is the potential for upwards of 1-2" of rain across the
coastal ranges of southern CA. We will not introduce any Marginal
risk yet, but if models continue to trend then can not rule out a
localized flood risk and will continue to monitor.

It seems like this feature has a pretty good chance of being our
next large impactful system that tracks eastward across the
country Friday into next weekend. As mentioned above, we have seen
some model convergence regarding this evolution, although there
remains considerable uncertainty regarding the details of how the
trough/low evolves and the latitude it tracks. These differences
will play a major role in sensible weather impacts from this
system. So while heavy rain in the warm sector and wintry precip to
the north of the system are all probable it is too early to give
much insight regarding those details.

Another front may bring increasing precipitation chances to the
pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend as well. Lots of model
spread with these details though, and would expect to see
significant forecast changes with regards to both the timing ans
strength of this system over the coming days.

Not seeing much of a signal for hazardous temperatures during this
period, with the main story being above normal temperatures from
the Plains into the Southeast and near normal temperatures from
the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast.


Chenard/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw