Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
126 AM EDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue over the eastern Florida
Peninsula through tomorrow...

...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and rain over the
Central Plains into Mid-Mississippi Valley for Thursday into
Friday...

...Active weather pattern expands across much of Western U.S. by
Friday into Saturday...


Chances for active weather continues as a frontal boundary
stretches across Northern California/Central Great Basin into Ohio
Valley and the Great Lakes over the next few days. Much of the
precipitation along the front will be showers and thunderstorms.
Parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes may experience
some mixed precipitation as the moisture interacts with colder
airmass. With an increase in warm Gulf moisture along the front
over Central Plains and unstable airmass, Storm Prediction Center
has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms from Northeast
Kansas into Southeast Nebraska and Northwest Missouri for
Thursday, with a chance for strong wind gusts and large hail. In
addition, Weather Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall over parts of Mid-Mississippi Valley and
Central Plains. Chances for thunderstorms and showers build over
the Southwest and Southern Plains/Rockies as the frontal system
slowly moves southward by Friday. With the warm moisture and
instability, chances for downpour increase which can lead to
localized flooding over parts of Southern Plains on Saturday. In
addition, a occluded frontal system moves closer inland from the
Pacific, reinforcing showers and thunderstorm activity over much
of Western U.S. with chances for snow over higher elevations and
mountaintops, especially over the Sierra Nevada, by late Friday
into Saturday.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue across Florida,
especially over the Space Coast southward into Miami, with the
overall pattern slowly eroding by Friday morning. Therefore, WPC
continues to maintain a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall and
flash flooding as the pattern continues to support 1-3 inches of
rainfall for Thursday.

Temperatures will continue to trend 5-12 degrees above normal for
much of CONUS through Friday, with the exception of the Northern
Plains and East Coast, where 10-15 degrees below normal
temperatures persist through Thursday. The Northern Plains and the
East Coast return to near normal temperatures by Thursday with the
Northern Rockies/Plains starting to see a uptick of 10-20 degrees
above normal by Saturday. In addition, the West Coast will start
to see a cool down of 5-12 degrees below normal.

Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 16 2026


...Overview...

The upper level pattern will amplify into next week as a
potent/cooling upper low/trough digs into the West and warming
ridging spreads up over the East. Upper troughing will work over
the West and central U.S./Midwest and drive a strong frontal
system across these regions with widespread precipitation chances.
Heavy rainfall and severe weather threats are expected to focus in
the south-central U.S. this weekend into next week, with heavy snow
possible for favored terrain from the Sierra Nevada to the Rockies
and downstream to the northern Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

....Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance remains in good agreement on the synoptic scale weather
pattern through much of next week, with an expected amount of
uncertainty in the smaller scale features. Favor a broad
model/ensemble mean/machine learning guidance blend with early next
week emphasis on the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET models before
transitioning emphasis more toward a GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble
means based solution into mid-later next week. The blending
process is designed to help mitigate lingering smaller scale system
timing and strength variances as consistent with individual
predictability. This plan maintains good product continuity with
the National Blend of Models and the previous WPC forecast suite.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A lead closed Pacific upper trough/low will push a surface system
inland over the Southwest/Southern Great Basin this weekend as
another energetic system dives south along the West Coast. The lead
system will lift northeastward over the north-central U.S. Sunday and
enhance winds/precipitation chances with cyclo/fronto genesis. The
second system will act to drive another frontal system across the
western U.S. that will bring widespread precipitation chances,
including rain and mountain snow, this weekend into early next
week. Conditions will be favorable for heavy snow over the Sierra
Nevada with anomalous moisture and strong upslope forcing in place.
Heavy snow potential will also spread into portions of the
central/southern Rockies early next week as the system progresses.

Downstream, moist southerly return flow and instability from the
Gulf will prime the atmosphere over the south-central U.S. for
heavy rain this weekend into next week. A Marginal Risk threat
areas remains in place for the Day 4/Sunday Excessive Rainfall
Outlook over the southern Plains. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms will spread northeastward across the Mississippi
Valley/Midwest/Great Lakes as the system lifts over the central
U.S. and eventually moves toward the Northeast. The strengthening
system will also likely support a severe weather threat this
weekend into early next week over the southern Plains as per SPC.
Convective downpours here are likely to refire through next midweek
here with subsequent upper trough/low energy working out from the
West/Southwest to the central U.S. and moderate system genesis.

Meanwhile in this pattern, downstream high pressure will emanate
from the Southeast to allow a warming trend to spread north toward
the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic this
weekend into next week.


Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
822 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

The excessive rainfall risks were removed from Florida given the
nocturnal downward trends in activity and instability. The upper
trough axis has also shifted east of the Peninsula, removing some
forcing. Localized heavy precip is likely overnight as abundant
moisture and some low level boundaries persist up near Daytona and
near Palm Beach. CAM guidance continues to indicate a diurnal ramp
up in heavy rain coverage over the eastern side of the FL
peninsula tomorrow where a Slight Risk remains in effect.

Jackson


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE FLORIDA
SPACE COAST THROUGH MIAMI...

Maintained a Marginal Risk from Daytona through Miami for continued
onshore flow maintaining 1.5" PW with some coastal instability
through the overnight. An MCV continues to work its way south off
Miami this evening which may lead to some organized heavy rain. An
isolated flash flood risk persists overnight.

Jackson


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...

...Central Plains to Mid-Mississippi Valley...

20Z Update: The general synoptic pattern remains consistent on a
run-to-run basis. That means there is the potential for locally
heavy rainfall that produces isolated flash flooding from Kansas to
points northeastward into northern Illinois from late Thursday
into Thursday night and early Friday morning.

A weak shortwave ejecting out of the Central Rockies will
intersect a stalling frontal boundary across the Upper Midwest and
Northern Plains. This will focus an axis of ascent along and just
ahead of the front. Areal QPF average of 1-3 inches remains in the
forecast within vicinity of the front with much of the rain
occurring in a window between 10/00Z and 10/12z Friday as return
flow from the Gulf approaches the front. The magnitude of rainfall
and antecedent soil moisture anomalies pin this into the
traditional MRGL risk threshold. One adjustment in the afternoon
package was a minor expansion of the MRGL risk north and eastward
to include the city of Des Moines. This is mostly a result of
uncertainty in QPF location as a result of differences in where the
stationary front aligns.


...Florida...

20Z Update: A threat for showers and thunderstorms will linger
from the Space Coast southwards to the Miami metro. The risk for
flash flooding should lessen on Thursday, but the overall pattern
of relatively high PWATS, moisture advection and convergence along
the coastal corridor should support an additional 1-3 inches of
rainfall. Moreover, saturated soils along the Space Coast to South
Florida may increase susceptibility to flash flooding. Therefore, a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in effect from the
northern Space Coast to Miami.

Wilder/Bann


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

20z Update: The general forecast remains on track as moisture
convergence along a slow moving cold front will help initiate
another round of heavy rainfall for portions of the Central Plains
to the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

The southward moving cold front which is expected to serve as a
focus for some heavy rainfall on Thursday will continue to move
southward and once again be the focus for convection that may
produce excessive rainfall on Friday over portions of the Central
or Southern Plains. The airmass will be moderately unstable with
MUCAPE values peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range in area where
precipitable water values peak close to 1.5 inches on Friday
afternoon...which should foster decent rainfall rates and the
potential for excessive rainfall amounts.

Bann/Wilder

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026


...Sierra Nevada...
Days 2-3...

A robust closed low will drop SSEward from the Gulf of Alaska
tomorrow and move into NorCal Saturday night into Sunday. Ahead of
that system a lead upper low will weaken into an open wave tonight
over NorCal but will bring in some moisture to the region. But it
will be the second system that will be the primary driver for
snowfall over the Sierra from late Friday/early Saturday through
Sunday (beyond this forecast period). Though moisture/IVT anomalies
will be modestly high (90th-95th percentile), the slow-moving
upper low will allow for a longer sustained fetch into the Sierra.
Moderate to heavy snow is expected over the High Sierra at first,
then lowering through many passes as colder air filters in. Snow
levels at precip onset tonight will be above 9000ft but fall to
7500-8000ft Friday morning, 6000ft Saturday morning, and
4000-4500ft Sunday morning. The heaviest snow is expected Saturday
afternoon through the overnight hours with rates of 1-3"/hr.

WPC probabilities for >6" of snow are >50% above 5000ft or so and
for >12" are >50% above 6000-7000ft or so. Total snowfall could
exceed 2-3ft for the event in the higher peaks (>50% chance).
Travel across the higher mountain passes (including I-80) will
increasingly become a concern through the weekend as snow levels
lower. Minor to moderate impacts can be expected over the Sierra
per the WSSI, with isolated major impacts in the High Sierra.

The probability of significant icing for days 1-3 across the CONUS
is less than 10 percent.

Fracasso

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 16 2026


...Overview...

The upper level pattern will amplify into next week as a
potent/cooling upper low/trough digs into the West and warming
ridging spreads up over the East. Upper troughing will work over
the West and central U.S./Midwest and drive a strong frontal
system across these regions with widespread precipitation chances.
Heavy rainfall and severe weather threats are expected to focus in
the south-central U.S. this weekend into next week, with heavy snow
possible for favored terrain from the Sierra Nevada to the Rockies
and downstream to the northern Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

....Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance remains in good agreement on the synoptic scale weather
pattern through much of next week, with an expected amount of
uncertainty in the smaller scale features. Favor a broad
model/ensemble mean/machine learning guidance blend with early next
week emphasis on the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET models before
transitioning emphasis more toward a GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble
means based solution into mid-later next week. The blending
process is designed to help mitigate lingering smaller scale system
timing and strength variances as consistent with individual
predictability. This plan maintains good product continuity with
the National Blend of Models and the previous WPC forecast suite.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A lead closed Pacific upper trough/low will push a surface system
inland over the Southwest/Southern Great Basin this weekend as
another energetic system dives south along the West Coast. The lead
system will lift northeastward over the north-central U.S. Sunday and
enhance winds/precipitation chances with cyclo/fronto genesis. The
second system will act to drive another frontal system across the
western U.S. that will bring widespread precipitation chances,
including rain and mountain snow, this weekend into early next
week. Conditions will be favorable for heavy snow over the Sierra
Nevada with anomalous moisture and strong upslope forcing in place.
Heavy snow potential will also spread into portions of the
central/southern Rockies early next week as the system progresses.

Downstream, moist southerly return flow and instability from the
Gulf will prime the atmosphere over the south-central U.S. for
heavy rain this weekend into next week. A Marginal Risk threat
areas remains in place for the Day 4/Sunday Excessive Rainfall
Outlook over the southern Plains. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms will spread northeastward across the Mississippi
Valley/Midwest/Great Lakes as the system lifts over the central
U.S. and eventually moves toward the Northeast. The strengthening
system will also likely support a severe weather threat this
weekend into early next week over the southern Plains as per SPC.
Convective downpours here are likely to refire through next midweek
here with subsequent upper trough/low energy working out from the
West/Southwest to the central U.S. and moderate system genesis.

Meanwhile in this pattern, downstream high pressure will emanate
from the Southeast to allow a warming trend to spread north toward
the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic this
weekend into next week.


Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw