Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 28 2026 - 00Z Mon Mar 02 2026

...Record warmth across the Southwest including Los Angeles as
arctic air surges across the norther tier states...

...Light snow will move quickly across the northern tier states
before wintry precipitation develops over the central Plains on
Sunday...

...Showers and thunderstorms will move off the Southeast U.S.
coast tonight but they will linger into the weekend for the
Sunshine State...

The weather pattern across the U.S. will support a large contrast
in temperatures across the U.S. as a warm ridge of high pressure
will keep well above normal temperatures in the Southwest while an
outbreak of arctic air will surge across the northern tier states.
 In fact, record breaking temperatures topping near 100 degrees
are forecast near the southern border of the Desert Southwest
Saturday afternoon under the ridge, including high temperatures
well up into the 80s for Los Angeles.  Temperatures will begin to
moderate on Sunday but they will remain at record high levels
Sunday afternoon across the Southwest.  Meanwhile, an outbreak of
arctic air currently reaching into the northern Plains will surge
east across the northern tier states while spreading farther south
into the central Plains over the weekend.  A swath of light to
locally moderate snow will move quickly across the northern tier
states from west to east through the next couple of days reaching
New England on Sunday well behind the arctic front.  By Sunday
afternoon, wintry precipitation is forecast to emerge over the
central Plains as an upper-level shortwave ejecting out of the
central Rockies begins to interact with the arctic front. 
Meanwhile, rain is forecast farther south across the south-central
Plains.

Across the Southeast, a frontal system with multiple low pressure
waves will gradually slide east into the Atlantic tonight. 
Showers and thunderstorms behind the system will be moving off the
Southeast U.S. into the Atlantic but the trailing portion of the
front will take additional time to move through the Florida
peninsula, keeping the chance of showers and thunderstorms into
the weekend for this portion of the Sunshine State.  For the West
Coast, an upper-level trough moving onshore will produce scattered
rain and rain showers from northern California to the Great Basin
during the weekend.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
205 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 06 2026


...Overview...

A split upper flow pattern next week will be highlighted by a
series of amplified southern stream lows/troughs slated to dig into
an unsettled West/Southwest with subsequent northeastward
ejections into the Central U.S.. This sets up what looks to be an
active/wet period with frontal wave genesis out through the Central
U.S. and the Midwest. Meanwhile, progressive shortwaves within a
northern stream will spread cold high pressure into the U.S.
northern tier. Shortwave energy and moisture may overrun this
colder airmass into Tuesday, bringing a wintry precipitation threat
to portions of the Mid- Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the
Appalachians/Mid- Atlantic. This upper pattern in the East is
slated to transition from broad troughing early next week to
amplified Southeast/Atlantic ridging and springtime warming later
next week as cold damned high pressure loses southward influence.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The bulk of latest models, ensembles and machine learning guidance
seems to again offer a reasonably similar mid-larger scale pattern
evolution through medium-range time scales. There do remain some
important detail differences which impact sensible weather though.
The most notable outlier was the 06z GFS which was faster with the
first upper low/shortwave as it ejects out of the Southwest early
week. It was also faster/weaker with the next trough as it digs
into the West. Interesting to note though, that some of the new 12z
guidance also trended slightly faster, with at least the first
shortwave into the Central U.S. early-mid week.

The WPC forecast today favored a general (non-GFS) blend of the
guidance for the first half of the period. Increased weighting of
the ensemble means later period to mitigate the smaller scale
differences which have lower predictability that far out. This
overall approach maintains good continuity with the NBM and the
previous WPC forecast.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A round of precipitation is forecast from the Mississippi Valley
into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic into early
Tuesday. Moisture overrunning a cold high pressure system to the
north will result in wintry precipitation. While this is not
expected to be a blockbuster storm, it seems broadly notable for
some snow to occur, most likely across portions of the Mid-
Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and into potentially the northern
Mid-Atlantic, but there remains some variability on the exact
axis/locations impacted. Along and just to the south, this pattern
will also favor a swath of mixed precipitation like sleet and
freezing rain, especially across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
Accumulations and track of the wintry weather remain uncertain, so
continue to monitor forecasts.

By late Monday into Tuesday, precipitation is forecast to get
renewed across the Mid-MS Valley and vicinity. This should
generally be a warmer system with more coverage of rain, though
some wintry weather is possible in the Midwest to Northeast. As the
first southern stream upper low moves across the Southwest Tuesday
and then the broader upper trough digs in the West Wednesday-
Thursday, this will tap into Gulf moisture and allow for increasing
rain and thunderstorm chances across the southern Plains and
downstream into the Mississippi Valley. Heavy rain and flooding are
potential concerns with this pattern and a broad marginal risk was
added to the Day 5/Tuesday Excessive Rainfall Outlook with above
average moisture and training potential along the slow moving and
west- east oriented frontal boundary.

In the West, a round of modest precipitation is forecast across
northern California into the central Great Basin to the central
Rockies early next week as the first upper low passes through. Snow
may linger in the central Rockies at least into Tuesday on the
backside of the precipitation shield developing in the Plains. Then
into mid-late next week, the Pacific Northwest into the northern
Rockies may see renewed cooling and increasing precipitation
chances and expanding coverage with approach and passage of another
amplified southern stream upper low/trough.


Santorelli/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026
Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Feb 27 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 28 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 28 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 01 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 01 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 02 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
202 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 28 2026 - 00Z Tue Mar 03 2026


...Northern High Plains, Great Lakes, & Northeast...
Days 1-3...

Guidance continues to indicate a long, narrow, corridor of
moderate to heavy snow will develop this evening over eastern
Montana and then track rapidly E/SE into the Great Lakes by Sunday
morning.

This swath of snowfall is expected to develop north of a cold front
which will be steadily digging southward into the Central and
Southern Plains on Saturday. As this front pushes south, a modest
mid-level trough will dive along the boundary, leading to
downstream WAA and accompanying 295K isentropic ascent to support
expanding precipitation. At the same time, impressive 850-600mb
fgen will develop and elongate NW to SE in response to this WAA
atop the front combined with the favorable positioning of the upper
jet streak to drive intense lift across the area. While there is
still uncertainty into where exactly this band of precipitation
will set up (still considerable latitudinal variability in the axis
from the various models) the result is likely to be a corridor of
heavy snow rates which could exceed 1"/hr (20-40% chance).

Since the snowfall should translate along the long axis of this
band, it will enhance the duration of snowfall, leading to the
potential for significant accumulations. Despite the latitudinal
uncertainty in this band placement, the high-res is actually in
pretty good agreement in amounts, with a general 2-4 inches likely,
with local amounts above 6" possible as reflected by WSE plumes.
While the fgen is impressive and the DGZ is deep, there is some
concern they won't overlap perfectly to create locally much higher
snowfall. However, this deep DGZ and a cold column should produce
high SLRs and fluffy snow that will quickly accumulate,
additionally suggesting the potential for locally higher totals. In
general WPC probabilities are moderate (30-50%) for 4+ inches from
western ND through the Coteau des Prairies and Buffalo Ridge of
SD/MN D1, with a low risk for more than 6 inches in isolated
locations. Farther east D2 and then D3, the band of snowfall should
weaken (WPC probabilities for 4+ inches fall to just around 10% D2
across the Great Lakes) before expanding a bit with some enhanced
WAA ahead of the front across the Northeast D3.


...Central Plains into the Mid-Atlantic...
Days 2-3...

Broad ridging across the Southwest will get suppressed as a
shortwave tracks out of the Pacific, crests the ridge Sunday
morning, and then continues E/SE into the Central Plains Sunday
afternoon. This shortwave will be paired with an upper jet pushing
eastward, and both of these features will continue to track east
into the Mid-Atlantic states on Monday. As this evolution develops
aloft, a surface cold front will drop steadily southeast from the
Central Plains into the Southeast by Monday. The overlap of this
front with the upper evolution will result in a weak wave of low
pressure moving along the boundary.

Downstream of this wave of low pressure, warm and moist advection
will begin to increase, leading to expanding and intensifying
isentropic upglide, especially along the 290K and 295K surfaces.
The downstream low-level flow reaching 20-30 kts at 850mb will help
surge modest IVT (approaching 400 kg/m/s) to drive PWs above the
90th climatological percentile in some areas, leading to a region
of heavy precipitation. The accompanying WAA will likely push a
warm nose northward to transition precipitation from snow, to mix,
to rain from the Central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley
Sunday into Monday. This precipitation will then extend into the
Mid- Atlantic Monday as a wedge of high pressure extends down the
coast, leading to at least some light mixed precipitation across
the Mid- Atlantic states, although dry air within the wedge could
erode a lot of the moisture before it arrives.

WPC probabilities for snowfall peak around 10-30% for 2+ inches of
snowfall across parts of MO/IA/IL D3, but the threat has diminished
somewhat with new updates. However, the accompanying freezing rain
probabilities have increased, and are now more than 50% for at
least 0.01 inches of ice D2 in the Mid-Mississippi Valley and
Central Plains, and increase/expand across the Central
Appalachians
D3 reaching as high as 30-50% for 0.1 inches in parts of PA/WV.


Weiss

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
205 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 06 2026


...Overview...

A split upper flow pattern next week will be highlighted by a
series of amplified southern stream lows/troughs slated to dig into
an unsettled West/Southwest with subsequent northeastward
ejections into the Central U.S.. This sets up what looks to be an
active/wet period with frontal wave genesis out through the Central
U.S. and the Midwest. Meanwhile, progressive shortwaves within a
northern stream will spread cold high pressure into the U.S.
northern tier. Shortwave energy and moisture may overrun this
colder airmass into Tuesday, bringing a wintry precipitation threat
to portions of the Mid- Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the
Appalachians/Mid- Atlantic. This upper pattern in the East is
slated to transition from broad troughing early next week to
amplified Southeast/Atlantic ridging and springtime warming later
next week as cold damned high pressure loses southward influence.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The bulk of latest models, ensembles and machine learning guidance
seems to again offer a reasonably similar mid-larger scale pattern
evolution through medium-range time scales. There do remain some
important detail differences which impact sensible weather though.
The most notable outlier was the 06z GFS which was faster with the
first upper low/shortwave as it ejects out of the Southwest early
week. It was also faster/weaker with the next trough as it digs
into the West. Interesting to note though, that some of the new 12z
guidance also trended slightly faster, with at least the first
shortwave into the Central U.S. early-mid week.

The WPC forecast today favored a general (non-GFS) blend of the
guidance for the first half of the period. Increased weighting of
the ensemble means later period to mitigate the smaller scale
differences which have lower predictability that far out. This
overall approach maintains good continuity with the NBM and the
previous WPC forecast.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A round of precipitation is forecast from the Mississippi Valley
into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic into early
Tuesday. Moisture overrunning a cold high pressure system to the
north will result in wintry precipitation. While this is not
expected to be a blockbuster storm, it seems broadly notable for
some snow to occur, most likely across portions of the Mid-
Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and into potentially the northern
Mid-Atlantic, but there remains some variability on the exact
axis/locations impacted. Along and just to the south, this pattern
will also favor a swath of mixed precipitation like sleet and
freezing rain, especially across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
Accumulations and track of the wintry weather remain uncertain, so
continue to monitor forecasts.

By late Monday into Tuesday, precipitation is forecast to get
renewed across the Mid-MS Valley and vicinity. This should
generally be a warmer system with more coverage of rain, though
some wintry weather is possible in the Midwest to Northeast. As the
first southern stream upper low moves across the Southwest Tuesday
and then the broader upper trough digs in the West Wednesday-
Thursday, this will tap into Gulf moisture and allow for increasing
rain and thunderstorm chances across the southern Plains and
downstream into the Mississippi Valley. Heavy rain and flooding are
potential concerns with this pattern and a broad marginal risk was
added to the Day 5/Tuesday Excessive Rainfall Outlook with above
average moisture and training potential along the slow moving and
west- east oriented frontal boundary.

In the West, a round of modest precipitation is forecast across
northern California into the central Great Basin to the central
Rockies early next week as the first upper low passes through. Snow
may linger in the central Rockies at least into Tuesday on the
backside of the precipitation shield developing in the Plains. Then
into mid-late next week, the Pacific Northwest into the northern
Rockies may see renewed cooling and increasing precipitation
chances and expanding coverage with approach and passage of another
amplified southern stream upper low/trough.


Santorelli/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw