Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 08 2026 - 00Z Tue Mar 10 2026

...Severe weather and flash flood risk expected with widespread
showers and thunderstorms from the Great Lakes to Texas Saturday...

...Lower elevation coastal/valley rain and high elevation snow
will continue for the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies this
weekend...

...Well above average to record warmth pushing eastward into the
eastern U.S. as anomalous warmth emerges over the northern Plains
during the weekend...

A stormy Saturday is in store from Texas to the Great Lakes as
showers and thunderstorms track eastward along and ahead of an
advancing cold front. Increased shear ahead of a leading
upper-level shortwave over the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley
is expected to lead to a few more robust thunderstorms, which has
prompted a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) from the
Storm Prediction Center for the threat of a few tornadoes as well
as damaging winds. Greater instability and sufficient shear to the
southwest over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and
eastern/south Texas is also expected to produce some severe
weather with a second Slight Risk in place for the threat of large
hail and damaging winds. In addition, the tendency for storms to
train/repeat over the same areas as storm movements become more
parallel to the increasingly east/west oriented cold front across
the Lower Mississippi Valley and Texas has prompted a Slight Risk
of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for the threat of some scattered
instances of flash flooding. More isolated instances of severe
weather and flash flooding can be expected elsewhere ahead of the
front. The cold front is expected to continue tracking eastward
spreading the convection to the Mid-Atlantic and New England
regions for Sunday. The frontal boundary will move offshore while
lingering from the Southeast to the south-central states.The risk
for severe weather and flash flooding on Sunday is currently
expected to remain isolated.

A persistent influx of Pacific moisture within the energetic
upper-level flow will keep chances for lower elevation
coastal/valley rain and higher elevation snows to the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies through the weekend. A more potent
system will bring the chance for some locally heavy snowfall into
the mountains by later Sunday and especially into Monday.
Elsewhere, some light freezing rain will linger into the day
Saturday for portions of northern New England. Some daily showers
and thunderstorms will be possible for Florida, and an
intensifying upper-low will bring a shot for some isolated showers
and thunderstorms into the Desert Southwest late Sunday and into
early Monday. Very strong, gusty winds are expected across
southern California today as a Santa Ana wind event continues,
with gusts upwards of 70 mph possible. Similarly strong winds,
with gusts upwards of 80 mph possible, are also expected with a
cold front passage across the northern Rockies Sunday.

Above to well-above average temperatures will be present across a
vast portion of the country this weekend. Some of the greatest
departures from normal will be centered near the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley in terms of 20 to 30 degrees warmer, with daily high
temperatures climbing into the 60s and 70s; which, could yield
numerous daily record-tying/breaking highs. For the Southeast,
daily highs into the 80s Saturday, though a cold front will bring
relatively cooler temperatures by around 10 degrees across these
regions Sunday. The Northeast, after a cooler end to the week due
a lingering frontal boundary, will finally see a warm up into the
40s and 50s Saturday with 60s by Sunday. For the central U.S.,
well above average highs are expected ahead of the cold front
Saturday with 60s and 70s for the Middle Mississippi Valley and
70s and 80s into the Lower Mississippi Valley west into portions
of Texas. A relative cool down by 5 to 10 degrees will follow on
Sunday. Meanwhile, highs across the Plains will warm from the 50s
Saturday into the 60s and 70s Sunday as post-frontal conditions
moderate. Another batch of potential record-tying/breaking daily
highs will be possible in the northern Plains as these
temperatures reach upwards of 25-30 degrees above average here as
well. Temperatures will also be trending warmer and further above
average across the western U.S. this weekend. Forecast highs
Saturday range in the 40s and 50s for the interior and the 60s and
70s for California and into the Desert Southwest, and will trend
around 10 degrees warmer for Sunday. The one exception will be in
the Pacific Northwest where highs in the 50s Saturday will cool a
few degrees Sunday following a cold front passage.

Campbell/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Mar 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 14 2026


...Threat of multi-day heavy rain/flooding appears to lessen
midweek across the east-central U.S. into the South but widespread
severe weather remains a concern...


...Pattern Overview...

The degree of interaction between a southern stream upper low and
a northern stream upper trough continues to introduce uncertainties
in the medium range forecasts across the east-central U.S. into the
Mid-South for midweek. The threat of multi-day heavy rain and
flooding in these areas appears to have decreased. Some snow and
mixed precipitation can be expected on the northern edge of the
precipitation shield from the Great Lakes to the interior
Northeast. An Atmospheric River remains on track to bring moderate
to heavy precipitation into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday and
Thursday followed by a clipper system to bring high wind threats
across the Rockies into the High Plains.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Agreement among the latest model guidance today continues to
improve for the medium range forecast period. The greatest area of
uncertainty remains across the east-central U.S. into the Mid-South
where an upper low ejecting out of Mexico is forecast to interact
with the northern stream amplifying trough. Models this morning
continues with a gradual trend toward a faster eastward progression
of the front across the eastern U.S. midweek along with a stronger
low pressure system to track across the Great Lakes. The increase
in forward motion of the front has resulted in a general lowering
of the rainfall amounts in the affected areas. The stronger low
pressure system has also led to a southward penetration of cold air
and the southward extent of wintry precipitation to possibly the
interior northern Mid-Atlantic. The EC-AIFS continues to favor a
slower southern stream progression but the latest (12Z) ECMWF
further hasten the eastward progression of the entire system.
Across the Pacific Northwest, the timing of the moderate to heavy
precipitation remains on track midweek.

A general blend of the deterministic guidance served as a good
starting point for the first half of the forecast period. Increased
weighting of the ensemble means offers a good starting point for
the latter portion of the forecasts, with reasonably good agreement
with the previous WPC forecast package.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Return flow from the Gulf and instability ahead of the Baja upper
low continue to bring a threat of heavy rain midweek across the
east-central U.S. into the Mid-South midweek, with potential
severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. Although these threats
have decreased based on the faster model consensus today, a
Marginal Risk area for excessive rainfall is highlighted from the
southern Plains to the Midwest on Tuesday, followed by an eastward
shift of the Marginal Risk across the Mid-South and the Ohio
Valley/Midwest on Wednesday. SPC is also highlighting severe
weather potential in similar regions for both days. Rainfall will
then expand into the eastern U.S. ahead of the main cold front,
but the overall flood threat looks limited as the frontal boundary
should be much more progressive by that time. Some snow or wintry
mix is possible on the northern edge of the precipitation shield
from the Great Lakes into the interior Northeast, and possibly as
far south as the interior northern Mid-Atlantic per the latest from
guidance.

A couple of shortwaves should keep the Pacific Northwest wet
through much of the period. The heaviest rainfall should be
associated with an Atmospheric River getting ready to enter the
region Wednesday. Heavy snows are possible in the higher
elevations, with even some light rain/snow mix possible at lower
elevations on Tuesday into Wednesday as temperatures could be cold
enough in the mornings.

Deep systems and tight pressure gradients will support high winds,
especially for the Northwest-Rockies-High Plains during the latter
half of next week. Gusty winds may also accompany the cold front
as it slides through the Midwest and into the East mid to late
week.

A significant springtime warm-up is expected ahead of the front
from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast with daytime highs 20 to 30
degrees above normal with daily widespread records in the forecasts.
Values should moderate back towards normal by Friday following the
frontal passage. Above normal temperatures are also expected to
expand with time across the Southwest into the Plains and the South
with below normal temperatures across the far northern tier.

Kong/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
622 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Mar 08 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 08 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


Mainly due to convective progression, there has been a significant
shrinking in both the Marginal and Slight Risk areas. The
mesoscale guidance most suggests that heavy rain issues from 01z
onward lie from the Upper TX Coast eastward towards Mobile. The
degree of moisture, instability, and effective bulk shear available
near and equatorward of a cold front continues to support the
potential for hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4".

While not depicted as a separate Slight Risk, mainly because it's
out in Brush Country, portions of interior South TX have a chance
in the very near term for heavy rainfall as well. Although they are
included in the Marginal Risk category, it's a higher end Marginal
Risk in that area. Overall, much of the rainfall expected is
beneficial, relieving long term drought conditions. The intensity
of organized convection and where storms can train and/or merge
would threaten urban areas most.

Roth

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
622 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 08 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 09 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST REGION...

2100 UTC update:

No changes made to the previous marginal risk area across the Gulf
coast region.

Oravec

Previous discussion:

Deep moisture...instability and the risk of excessive rainfall
should be confined to a shrinking area south of an approaching
cold front on Sunday. Model guidance showed a corresponding
decrease in QPF and spaghetti plots from the SREF and the GEFS
maintaining a few members kept neighborhood probabilities of 1 inch
or greater confined from Louisiana into Georgia with greatest
clustering from southern Mississippi into central and southern
Alabama with QPF spaghetti plots showing few members at 2 inch
amounts in 24 hours from either the SREF ir GEFS. In this portion
of the Marginal risk...there was good agreement between WPC and the
CSU machine learning first-guess ERO. The WPC Marginal Risk area
extended west along the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast if
deference to the HREF and RRFS runs which lingered some 1+ in per
hour rainfall along the coast and even some 2 inch per 6 hour
lingering through at least 08/18Z. In addition...Gulf moisture
starts to return northward over southwestern Texas later in the
period...also supporting a westward expansion.

Bann


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
622 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 09 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY...

2100 UTC update:

Only some minor changes made to the marginal risk area from the
Lower Mississippi Valley into the Upper Tennessee Valley. Changes
made were to cover the latest qpf spread for locally heavy precip
totals day 3 across these regions.

Oravec

Previous discussion:

The front which had been moving from west to east in the Day 1 and
Day 2 period will slow its forward motion and become oriented along
a west to east axis on Monday and the start to inch northward
Monday afternoon and Monday night. There is a wide range of
solutions in where convection could fire along that boundary which
limits confidence. However...confidence is higher in the occurrence
of showers and thunderstorms occurring rather than details of where
that could happen given precipitable water values approaching 1.75
inches ready to to be lifted isentropically above the front as low
level flow becomes southerly. The area should become better focused
in subsequent outlooks.


Bann

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 08 2026 - 00Z Wed Mar 11 2026

...Pacific Northwest...

Days 1-3...

A strong Eastern Pacific ridge axis over the Northwest is forecast
to flatten tonight amid strong height-falls from a digging trough
in the Gulf of Alaska. Accordingly, strong zonal onshore flow
will set in across the Pacific Northwest by early tomorrow. As
highlighted overnight, snow levels in the prefrontal airmass will
be quite high to begin Sunday -- around 6-7000 feet, but should
decrease to 500-1000 feet by Monday morning. Thus, snowfall in the
Day 1 period should be relegated to the northern reaches of the
Cascades, where the latest PWPF shows 60% probabilities for >4"
atop Stevens Pass. The unsettled pattern will continue into next
week as a digging jet-streak and shortwave approach on Monday,
leading to renewed snowfall at and below pass level. By Days 2-3,
snow probs for >6" are 50-90% for the WA Cascades and the Olympics.


...Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest...

Late Day 2-3...

Snowfall is expected to expand along the northern flank of a
developing lee-side low on Monday. A lingering Pacific moisture
plume, superimposed with a corridor of 850-700 mb frontogenesis
and right entrance ascent will lead to an east-west translating
area of snowfall atop the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The
progressive nature of this band should limit overall snowfall
amounts however, evidenced by the latest PWPF which shows 20%
probabilities of >4" in Northeast MN.

Asherman/Jackson

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Mar 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 14 2026


...Threat of multi-day heavy rain/flooding appears to lessen
midweek across the east-central U.S. into the South but widespread
severe weather remains a concern...


...Pattern Overview...

The degree of interaction between a southern stream upper low and
a northern stream upper trough continues to introduce uncertainties
in the medium range forecasts across the east-central U.S. into the
Mid-South for midweek. The threat of multi-day heavy rain and
flooding in these areas appears to have decreased. Some snow and
mixed precipitation can be expected on the northern edge of the
precipitation shield from the Great Lakes to the interior
Northeast. An Atmospheric River remains on track to bring moderate
to heavy precipitation into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday and
Thursday followed by a clipper system to bring high wind threats
across the Rockies into the High Plains.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Agreement among the latest model guidance today continues to
improve for the medium range forecast period. The greatest area of
uncertainty remains across the east-central U.S. into the Mid-South
where an upper low ejecting out of Mexico is forecast to interact
with the northern stream amplifying trough. Models this morning
continues with a gradual trend toward a faster eastward progression
of the front across the eastern U.S. midweek along with a stronger
low pressure system to track across the Great Lakes. The increase
in forward motion of the front has resulted in a general lowering
of the rainfall amounts in the affected areas. The stronger low
pressure system has also led to a southward penetration of cold air
and the southward extent of wintry precipitation to possibly the
interior northern Mid-Atlantic. The EC-AIFS continues to favor a
slower southern stream progression but the latest (12Z) ECMWF
further hasten the eastward progression of the entire system.
Across the Pacific Northwest, the timing of the moderate to heavy
precipitation remains on track midweek.

A general blend of the deterministic guidance served as a good
starting point for the first half of the forecast period. Increased
weighting of the ensemble means offers a good starting point for
the latter portion of the forecasts, with reasonably good agreement
with the previous WPC forecast package.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Return flow from the Gulf and instability ahead of the Baja upper
low continue to bring a threat of heavy rain midweek across the
east-central U.S. into the Mid-South midweek, with potential
severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. Although these threats
have decreased based on the faster model consensus today, a
Marginal Risk area for excessive rainfall is highlighted from the
southern Plains to the Midwest on Tuesday, followed by an eastward
shift of the Marginal Risk across the Mid-South and the Ohio
Valley/Midwest on Wednesday. SPC is also highlighting severe
weather potential in similar regions for both days. Rainfall will
then expand into the eastern U.S. ahead of the main cold front,
but the overall flood threat looks limited as the frontal boundary
should be much more progressive by that time. Some snow or wintry
mix is possible on the northern edge of the precipitation shield
from the Great Lakes into the interior Northeast, and possibly as
far south as the interior northern Mid-Atlantic per the latest from
guidance.

A couple of shortwaves should keep the Pacific Northwest wet
through much of the period. The heaviest rainfall should be
associated with an Atmospheric River getting ready to enter the
region Wednesday. Heavy snows are possible in the higher
elevations, with even some light rain/snow mix possible at lower
elevations on Tuesday into Wednesday as temperatures could be cold
enough in the mornings.

Deep systems and tight pressure gradients will support high winds,
especially for the Northwest-Rockies-High Plains during the latter
half of next week. Gusty winds may also accompany the cold front
as it slides through the Midwest and into the East mid to late
week.

A significant springtime warm-up is expected ahead of the front
from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast with daytime highs 20 to 30
degrees above normal with daily widespread records in the forecasts.
Values should moderate back towards normal by Friday following the
frontal passage. Above normal temperatures are also expected to
expand with time across the Southwest into the Plains and the South
with below normal temperatures across the far northern tier.

Kong/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw