Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1259 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 00Z Sat May 23 2026 - 00Z Mon May 25 2026

...Scattered flash flooding potential from the Ohio Valley to the
western Gulf Coast States the next couple of days...

...Severe thunderstorms continue across the southern High
Plains...

...A wet and unsettled Memorial Day weekend is in store for much
of the East, while the West remains warm and dry...

A slow-moving, wavy frontal system will be the primary focus for
active weather across the central-eastern half of the country the
next few days. The system will bring multiple round of showers and
thunderstorms across the frontal boundary, especially across the
southern Plains and Deep South into the Ohio Valley. The system
will also bring some cooler temperatures through Memorial Day
weekend, with highs reaching only 50s and 60s across parts of
Northeast into Mid-Atlantic. On the warm side of the front, some
of the shower and thunderstorm activity will have the potential to
produce severe weather and flash flooding, with daily threats
heading into the weekend. As the frontal boundary moves across the
central and southern Plains, southeasterly winds will bring in
warm moisture along the boundary, supporting severe thunderstorms
this evening. Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of west
Texas and Oklahoma, with additional threats of hail and severe
wind gusts. Thunderstorms may also grow to become strong across
portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley, along the central Gulf Coast
states, and in parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys where
Marginal Risks are in place for isolated severe hail, wind, and
perhaps a tornado. In addition, with the chance for several storm
clusters bringing heavy rainfall across parts of the Ohio Valley,
Appalachians, Central Gulf Coast, and Alabama, Weather Prediction
Center (WPC) has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall with a chance for flash flooding for the remainder of
Friday. 

The storm activity continues into the weekend as the front
continues to progress eastward, with severe weather threats moving
into parts of the Southeast, lower Mississippi Valley, and
southern Plains on Saturday. While storm intensity should be less
than on Friday, isolated instances of large hail and damaging
winds can't be ruled out as the environment will remain unstable
and adequately moist. Multiple clusters of storms containing heavy
rainfall rates repeatedly tracking over the same areas that
already have saturated grounds will quickly lead to a flash
flooding threat Saturday afternoon. As a result, a higher end
Slight Risk (level 2/4) is in effect. Elsewhere, heavier showers
and storms may also lead to flooding concerns in parts of the
Southeast, though any issues are expected to be localized.

Meanwhile, with wet and stormy weather keeping the eastern U.S.
unsettled the next few days, the same cannot be said for the
western U.S. Other than a few high elevation showers across some
mountain ranges in the Rockies and Sierra, the majority of the
West will stay dry with above average temperatures through the
holiday weekend. Highs will climb into the 80s and 90s within
inland areas across the west, with 100s confined to the lower
deserts of California, Nevada, and Arizona. On Monday, 15-25
degrees above normal temperatures will develop over the Northern
Plains with highs in the upper 80s and 90s.


Oudit/Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 12Z Mon May 25 2026 - 12Z Fri May 29 2026

...Heavy rain and thunderstorms expected to continue across much
of the Southern U.S...

...Overview...

A couple of southern stream upper troughs will pass through the
southwestern and south-central U.S. next week, providing lift for
widespread rain and thunderstorms in a moist and unstable
environment. The heaviest rain should generally affect the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Memorial Day, and potentially
get renewed in Texas and vicinity into the workweek over areas
that will already have wet antecedent conditions. Out West, a more
amplified pattern starts to emerge as a stronger upper trough
likely becoming a closed low enters the Pacific Northwest and
envelops more of the Intermountain West by mid to late week,
yielding cooler temperatures and precipitation. An upper ridge
should develop downstream in the east-central U.S., reaching into
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and bringing above average
temperatures.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest models and guidance show good agreement on the overall
pattern evolution through the period, which should gradually trend
more and more amplified through next week. GFS and GEFS runs from
today (Friday) have fortunately caught back onto a solution of
showing a deeper and slower upper low moving across the West like
the non-NCEP guidance has shown, unlike yesterday's GFS/GEFS runs.
There remains some minor spread with just how far south the low
will get, with the 12Z CMC the farthest south by late week while
other guidance has the low centroid farther north. There is good
agreement for upper ridging downstream, oriented from the Southeast
northwestward into the Midwest, as southern stream energy cuts
into it in the south-central U.S., with typical model differences
in the details. Meanwhile, there is some uncertainty by Thursday
and Friday with a potential upper low retrograding into the
Northeast and the potential for multiple waves of troughing. The
details are yet to be determined but will continue to be monitored
as it does affect sensible weather for temperatures and QPF.

A multi-model blend worked well for the medium range forecast
early on. As the week progressed, used more of the ensemble means
for the fronts/pressures to mitigate individual model differences,
with the means reaching about half by Day 7.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

On Monday, northern stream troughing over the Northeast and
southern stream troughing over the southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley will allow for a large swath of rain and
thunderstorms through the south-central U.S. stretching across the
East. Areas farther south should see heavier rain in a more
unstable environment, so a Marginal Risk remains in place in the
Day 4/Monday ERO from eastern Texas through much of the Mid-South
and Southeast for potential flash flooding from heavy rain rates.
Additionally, the next southern stream upper low moving across the
Southwest will help spark convection in the Four Corners region,
especially New Mexico, on Monday. These storms should have good
dynamical lift but less instability and faster movement than would
likely cause flooding issues, so will keep this area out of a
Marginal Risk. As the southern stream upper low moves east, this
should renew convection with heavy rain potential in Texas and
vicinity, and maintain rain/storm chances farther east. A broad
Marginal Risk is also in place for Day 5/Tuesday. It is possible
embedded Slight Risks may be needed as models converge on better
potential for where heavy rainfall may occur. This is especially
true for parts of Texas and vicinity (Tuesday and beyond) where
recent rains and short term rainfall has lead to rather saturated
grounds. The wet pattern looks to remain in place across the
southeast quadrant of the country through the rest of the week as
the overall pattern aloft stagnates.

Upper troughing moving into the Northwest early next week and a
frontal system ahead of it will allow for increased precipitation
reaching the Pacific Northwest and spreading south and eastward
with time through the week. Snow is possible at the highest
elevations of the Cascades to Rockies.

With a deepening trough over the West, temperatures should trend
cooler in this region through about Wednesday, with some moderating
back towards normal as the trough weakens and drifts. The upper
ridge to its east will allow for warmer than average temperatures
across the north-central U.S. through much of next week, with
daytime highs 10-20 degrees above normal, especially for the early
part of the week.


Tate/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
858 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat May 23 2026 - 12Z Sat May 23 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
INTO ALABAMA...

01Z update...Expanded the Slight Risk area over portions of the
southern Appalachians in response to upscale growth early this
evening and strengthening low level flow interacting with the
terrain later this evening. The expected development of several
storm clusters over portions of Oklahoma and Texas has started and
only minor adjustments needed there. Extended the Marginal risk
area as far west as SHV from renewed convection developing over
southeast AR...similar to the NAM and 23/00Z HRRR and in an area
covered by WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0214.

Bann

Shortwave energy embedded in broad southwesterly mid to upper
level flow from the western to central Gulf Coast, northeastward
through the TN/OH Valleys will persist through the upcoming day 1
period. These height falls/broad diffluent upper flow will enhance
uvvs in a large region of much above average PW values/anomalous
850-700 mb moisture flux, 2 to 2.5+/2-3+ standard deviations above
the mean respectively from the Gulf Coast northeastward into the
Ohio Valley. There is fairly good model consensus for the potential
for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall total in this anomalous
PW axis day 1. Simulated radars suggest cells will be fairly
progressive to the northeast. However, with potential for short
term training of cells and/or repeat rounds of convection, there
will be potential for runoff issues. Slight risk areas maintained
over the Upper OH Valley from northeast KY into southern OH where
FFG values are relatively low, and in the upslope region of the
Southern Appalachians from far northeast GA into the Upstate of SC
and western NC where heavy precip likely to focus in the region of
southerly low level flow. The slight risk areas fit well with the
axes of the HREF and RRFS means 2 and 3"+ probabilities.

Across the Southern Plains, a marginal risk area was introduced for
potential for additional convection Friday evening into the early
hours of Saturday. Additional shortwave energy expected to push
eastward into the Southern High Plains, supporting potential for
some organization to the associated convection late Friday into the
early hours of Saturday. Low confidence on details, with isolated
runoff issues possible where convection become organized.

Oravec

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
858 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat May 23 2026 - 12Z Sun May 24 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...

21Z update... The mid and upper levels over Texas and Louisiana are
quite favorable for heavy rainfall capable of producing scattered
areas of flash flooding however a limiting factor is the lack of low
level flow to help foster the general organization of convection
that would become more widespread and/or increase training and back
building of storms. The latest guidance does show storms capable
of producing 2 to 3 inch/hr rates for southeast/coastal Texas and
southwest Louisiana; however the exact location of said rates
remains uncertain. Should the environment in the lower level
provide a trigger for increased wind speed/forcing there may be
better confidence for the possibility of an upgrade to a Moderate
Risk in future updates. At this point, much of Southeast Texas and
southwest Louisiana will remain on the higher end of the Slight
Risk category for scattered areas for flash flooding (with
potential for very isolated instances of significant flash
flooding if it occurs over very sensitive locations). Further
east, the overall axis of rainfall and amounts increased across
portions of Georgia and western South Carolina so the southern half
of the Marginal was shifted eastward.

Campbell

Additional shortwave energy expected to move from far northeast
Mexico into southern and eastern Texas early Saturday, likely
setting the stage for another round of organized convection.
Building instability early Saturday, Mucape values reaching
2000-300 j/kg ahead of these height falls, in an axis of PW values
1.5-2.5 standard deviations above the mean, will support potential
for an organized line of convection to push across eastern and
southern TX Saturday morning into afternoon. The previous risk
areas were narrowed to better reflect the latest model qpf output
and the max RRFS 2 and 3"+ probability axes for the day 2 time
period.

No significant changes made to the marginal risk area from the
Southern Appalachians into the Southeast. Southwest mid to upper
level flow with embedded shortwaves will continue across these
areas day 2. With PW values remaining well above average, 2 to 2.5+
standard deviations above the mean, additional widespread
scattered convection will likely produce locally heavy rainfall
totals. Both the HREF and RRFS show fairly high probabilities for
1"+/hr rainfall totals Saturday afternoon, supporting potential for
isolated runoff issues.

The marginal risk was also expanded northward from the previous
issuance into far eastern KS and large portions of MO to cover
areas the RRFS, GEM and FV3LAM are showing heavy rainfall totals
day 2.

Oravec


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
858 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun May 24 2026 - 12Z Mon May 25 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

21Z update... Heavy rainfall will continue to focus along the Gulf
Coast for this period, with some overlap from the Day 2 footprint
along with shifting eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Deep
South. The Slight Risk was expanded to the northeast into southern
Mississippi Again, Southeast Texas and southwest/south-central
Louisiana will be on the higher end of the threat

Campbell

A slow moving upper trof expected to amplify somewhat day 3 as it
pushes from eastern Texas into the Lower MS Valley. Similar to the
day 2 and day 3 period, there will continue to be an axis of much
above average PW values stretching from the Gulf Coast
northeastward into the Southeast/Southern to Central Appalachians.
There is a lot of spread day 3 with the QPF details, but still a
signal for widespread moderate to heavy rain potential in this
anomalous PW axis. A slight risk was maintained from the Upper TX
coast into southern LA, close to the WPC and NBM qpf max. This
covers the urban areas from Houston to New Orleans.

The marginal risk area was extended farther northeast through the
Southern to Central Appalachians where scattered convection likely
in the anomalous PW axis, supporting locally heavy rainfall
amounts and potential for isolated runoff issues.

Oravec

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Valid 00Z Thu May 07 2026 - 00Z Sun May 10 2026

...WPC Winter Weather Desk no longer routinely staffed until
late September, 2026...

Pending any significant winter weather, the WPC Winter Weather Desk
will not be staffed through the summer. The desk will resume
continuous staffing starting in the fall.

The WPC winter products will continue to be produced, however, and
all products except the heavy snow discussion (HSD) will be
available. This includes the Winter Storm Outlook (WSO), Winter
Storm Severity Index (WSSI), and Probabilistic Winter Precipitation
Forecasts (PWPF).


WPC

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 12Z Mon May 25 2026 - 12Z Fri May 29 2026

...Heavy rain and thunderstorms expected to continue across much
of the Southern U.S...

...Overview...

A couple of southern stream upper troughs will pass through the
southwestern and south-central U.S. next week, providing lift for
widespread rain and thunderstorms in a moist and unstable
environment. The heaviest rain should generally affect the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Memorial Day, and potentially
get renewed in Texas and vicinity into the workweek over areas
that will already have wet antecedent conditions. Out West, a more
amplified pattern starts to emerge as a stronger upper trough
likely becoming a closed low enters the Pacific Northwest and
envelops more of the Intermountain West by mid to late week,
yielding cooler temperatures and precipitation. An upper ridge
should develop downstream in the east-central U.S., reaching into
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and bringing above average
temperatures.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest models and guidance show good agreement on the overall
pattern evolution through the period, which should gradually trend
more and more amplified through next week. GFS and GEFS runs from
today (Friday) have fortunately caught back onto a solution of
showing a deeper and slower upper low moving across the West like
the non-NCEP guidance has shown, unlike yesterday's GFS/GEFS runs.
There remains some minor spread with just how far south the low
will get, with the 12Z CMC the farthest south by late week while
other guidance has the low centroid farther north. There is good
agreement for upper ridging downstream, oriented from the Southeast
northwestward into the Midwest, as southern stream energy cuts
into it in the south-central U.S., with typical model differences
in the details. Meanwhile, there is some uncertainty by Thursday
and Friday with a potential upper low retrograding into the
Northeast and the potential for multiple waves of troughing. The
details are yet to be determined but will continue to be monitored
as it does affect sensible weather for temperatures and QPF.

A multi-model blend worked well for the medium range forecast
early on. As the week progressed, used more of the ensemble means
for the fronts/pressures to mitigate individual model differences,
with the means reaching about half by Day 7.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

On Monday, northern stream troughing over the Northeast and
southern stream troughing over the southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley will allow for a large swath of rain and
thunderstorms through the south-central U.S. stretching across the
East. Areas farther south should see heavier rain in a more
unstable environment, so a Marginal Risk remains in place in the
Day 4/Monday ERO from eastern Texas through much of the Mid-South
and Southeast for potential flash flooding from heavy rain rates.
Additionally, the next southern stream upper low moving across the
Southwest will help spark convection in the Four Corners region,
especially New Mexico, on Monday. These storms should have good
dynamical lift but less instability and faster movement than would
likely cause flooding issues, so will keep this area out of a
Marginal Risk. As the southern stream upper low moves east, this
should renew convection with heavy rain potential in Texas and
vicinity, and maintain rain/storm chances farther east. A broad
Marginal Risk is also in place for Day 5/Tuesday. It is possible
embedded Slight Risks may be needed as models converge on better
potential for where heavy rainfall may occur. This is especially
true for parts of Texas and vicinity (Tuesday and beyond) where
recent rains and short term rainfall has lead to rather saturated
grounds. The wet pattern looks to remain in place across the
southeast quadrant of the country through the rest of the week as
the overall pattern aloft stagnates.

Upper troughing moving into the Northwest early next week and a
frontal system ahead of it will allow for increased precipitation
reaching the Pacific Northwest and spreading south and eastward
with time through the week. Snow is possible at the highest
elevations of the Cascades to Rockies.

With a deepening trough over the West, temperatures should trend
cooler in this region through about Wednesday, with some moderating
back towards normal as the trough weakens and drifts. The upper
ridge to its east will allow for warmer than average temperatures
across the north-central U.S. through much of next week, with
daytime highs 10-20 degrees above normal, especially for the early
part of the week.


Tate/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw