Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 AM EST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026

...Dangerous Arctic airmass will persist over the eastern Great
Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Sunday...

...Lower elevation rain and higher elevation snow continues for
the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies Sunday...

...Warmer-than-average temperatures continue for much of the
central to western U.S....

A bitterly cold Arctic airmass that has overspread the eastern
Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast following a
pair of cold front passages is expected to persist through Sunday.
Forecast highs range from the single digits and teens for the
Interior Northeast/New England to the 20s and 30s further south
into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Lingering gusty winds will
lead to dangerously cold wind chills as low as the negative 30s
across the Interior Northeast/New England and the single digits
and teens elsewhere, particularly through the morning hours.
Conditions are expected to moderate through the early part of the
week, with highs Monday and Tuesday increasing by around 10
degrees or so each day.

A Pacific system and accompanying influx of moisture will continue
to overspread the Pacific Northwest east through the northern
Great Basin and Rockies Sunday. The focus for the heaviest
rainfall will shift southward from western Washington to western
Oregon/far northern California today, with light to moderate rain
showers for lower elevations/valleys inland through the northern
Great Basin/Rockies. Cooling temperatures as a cold front sinks
south Sunday night into Monday may lead to a wintry mix for some
lower elevation locations, though accumulations should remain
limited. Some precipitation is also expected into adjacent
portions of the northern High Plains. Higher elevation mountain
ranges from the southern Cascades to the northern Rockies will see
moderate to locally heavy snowfall. Precipitation chances will
quickly decrease into the day Monday as the influx of moisture
ends, with the snow lingering longest for higher elevations of the
northern Rockies. Another system looks to bring some moderate
lower elevation rainfall and heavy high elevation snow further
south into California and the Sierras Tuesday.

Elsewhere, another clipper-like system moving along the
U.S./Canadian border will bring wintry precipitation chances to
the Upper Great Lakes Monday, with some light icing and snow
showers expected. This system is also expected to bring some more
moderate snowfall chances into Upstate New York/New England
Tuesday. Increasing moisture ahead of a cold front moving through
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys southwest through the Mississippi
Valley into the southern Plains will bring increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances possibly as early as Tuesday morning, but
more likely into the day on Tuesday.

Warmer-than-average conditions will continue into the early part
of next week across much of the central to western U.S. The
greatest anomalies remain focused on the northern to central
Plains, where highs as warm as the 60s and 70s are upwards of
35-40 degrees above early February averages. Some daily
record-tying/breaking highs may be reached Monday across the
central Plains. A cold front will bring closer to average
conditions for portions of the northern Plains Monday, with highs
in the 40s. While not quite as anomalous, conditions still remain
above average across much of the Interior West, with highs into
the 50s and 60s, and across the southern tier with 70s to low 80s
from the southern Plains west through the Southwest to southern
California. The incoming Pacific system will keep temperatures
closer to average for the Pacific northwest, northern California,
and northern Great Basin, with highs in the 40s and 50s. Improving
conditions will also spread east into the Mississippi Valley today
and then into portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast
Monday, with highs increasing into the 40s and 50s to the north
and 60s and 70s to the south.


Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026


...Overview...

An initial upper low over northern Mexico as the period begins
Tuesday will move into the southern Plains and weaken as it gets
shunted off to to the Southeast. This should bring some
precipitation across the south-central U.S. to Ohio Valley and
Southeast through Wednesday. Behind this, another trough looks to
dive down the West Coast with additional energy entering the
Southwest late week allowing for renewed moisture and expansion of
precipitation across parts of the central to eastern states next
weekend. Northern stream energy is forecast to bring additional
rounds of precipitation into the Northwest and Intermountain West
late week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance continues to show good large scale agreement with
the initial low over northern Mexico as it shifts eastward,
weakens, and becomes absorbed by the larger scale flow. There
remain some uncertainties in the details which will impact
sensible weather and associated precipitation coverage, but we have
seen better agreement evolve with the 12z guidance. It is now
clear that the southern and northern stream energy will remain
separate Tuesday into Wednesday, which should allow for a warmer
solution and less of a threat of winter impacts with the southern
stream system.

The greatest source of uncertainty continues to be with the west
coast troughing by mid to late week and how/when that energy moves
eastward across the country. Today's model trend was for the
GFS/ECMWF to trend closer to the AI model suite (EC
AIFS/AIGFS/AIGEFS) with a slower evolution of this west coast
trough. This delays the stronger system that should eventually move
across the country Friday into next weekend. While we can not say
confidence is high that this trend will persist, we will note that
most of the AI model suite has been in this camp for several runs.
This seemingly adds a bit more confidence to the 12z GFS/EC/CMC
trend than an abrupt shift like this normally would. Thus tend to
think we will see the overall ensemble data/NBM evolve in this
direction. While confidence may be increasing in this slower
solution, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the
details of how the trough/low evolves and the latitude it tracks.

In between these two systems there remains the potential for a
weaker system to move from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday
and Friday within the mid-level northwesterly flow. Quite a bit of
uncertainty with this feature related to the depth of the eastern
U.S. trough and strength of the shortwave energy diving southeast.
The 12z EC/CMC keep a signal for sensible weather impacts, but the
GFS and AI guidance generally keep things dry.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The aforementioned northern stream energy will bring some light
snow accumulations to portions of the Northeast Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Farther south, light to moderate rain is forecast from
the OH/TN valley into the Southeast. Given the trend for more
separation between streams, wintry weather impacts appear less
likely with this feature, although a small corridor of mixed
precipitation is still possible along the northern edge of the
precipitation shield.

The trough/closed low moving into CA will bring rain and mountain
snow to the state Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into the Great
Basin by Wednesday. This feature has trended stronger today, and
thus rainfall and high elevation snow amount potential has
increased. While the AI guidance has shown this for a few model
cycles now, the physical models are just now trending in that
direction. While still not expecting major rain or snow totals,
there is the potential for upwards of 1-2" of rain across the
coastal ranges of southern CA. We will not introduce any Marginal
risk yet, but if models continue to trend then can not rule out a
localized flood risk and will continue to monitor.

It seems like this feature has a pretty good chance of being our
next large impactful system that tracks eastward across the
country Friday into next weekend. As mentioned above, we have seen
some model convergence regarding this evolution, although there
remains considerable uncertainty regarding the details of how the
trough/low evolves and the latitude it tracks. These differences
will play a major role in sensible weather impacts from this
system. So while heavy rain in the warm sector and wintry precip to
the north of the system are all probable it is too early to give
much insight regarding those details.

Another front may bring increasing precipitation chances to the
pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend as well. Lots of model
spread with these details though, and would expect to see
significant forecast changes with regards to both the timing ans
strength of this system over the coming days.

Not seeing much of a signal for hazardous temperatures during this
period, with the main story being above normal temperatures from
the Plains into the Southeast and near normal temperatures from
the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast.


Chenard/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
632 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Feb 08 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Tate

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
632 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Tate

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
632 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Tate

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026


...Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies...
Days 1-2...

A surface cold front will be draped NE to SW from Montana through
Oregon to start the period, lingering from a wave of low pressure
moving across Canada. As this cold front wavers Sunday, a
shortwave trough will emerge from the Pacific and cross northeast
into the Pacific Northwest, reaching the Northern Rockies Monday
evening while deamplifying and shearing out into the westerlies.
This will result in a secondary wave of low pressure developing
along the front which will finally kick the front southeast and out
of the region.

Forcing for ascent will intensify as this shortwave lifts
northeast, as mid-level divergence and heights falls interact atop
the boundary, and work in tandem with a zonally oriented but
intensifying jet streak arcing into the Northern Plains. This
synoptic lift atop the corresponding moisture (via strengthening
but still modest IVT) will result in a stripe of precipitation,
with snowfall expected in the higher terrain. Snow levels will be
falling through the period as the cold front and height falls
progress E/SE, reaching as low as 3000-4000 ft before precip winds
down by Tuesday morning. 2-day WPC probabilities indicate a high
potential (>70% chance) for at least 8 inches in the higher terrain
of the Cascades, as well as across the Blue Mountains, and much of
the terrain of the Northern Rockies of ID/western MT/northwest WY.
Locally 1-2 feet is possible.


...Sierra Nevada and Great Basin...
Days 2-3...

A closed mid-level low west of California will gradually translate
eastward, potentially coming onshore northern California by the end
of the forecast period. The progression of this low will result in
increasing ascent through height falls/mid-level divergence into
CA. At the same time, a subtropical jet streak will intensify
downstream of this trough axis, strengthening to 130 kts and
placing the favorable LFQ diffluent region over CA and into the
Great Basin, aligning with the strongest height falls. Moisture
advection will spread onshore beneath modest IVT (40-60% chance of
at least 250 kg/m/s) but this will be sufficient to spread heavy
precipitation into the region. With snow levels expected to be
generally 6000-7000 ft, the heavy snow should be confined to the
Sierra and higher terrain farther east (Ruby mountains of NV and
into the Uintas, but at least light snow will spread across much of
the Great Basin above 6000 ft, rare for what has been an
exceptionally dry winter so far, and likely welcome for most of the
region. Current WPC probabilities indicate a high chance (>70%) for
more than 8 inches in the high Sierra, with locally more than 12
inches possible (30-50% chance). Farther east, WPC probabilities
indicate a low risk (30%) for 6+ inches in the Ruby Mountains and
parts of the Uintas.


...Northeast...
Day 3...

A clipper-type low will drop out of Ontario and cross Upstate New
York and New England Tuesday evening/Tuesday night. The clipper
itself is not impressively strong, but will be preceded by a period
of moderate WAA which will help expand a shield of snowfall with
moderate snow rates from NY through central/northern New England.
As the clipper dives through the area after 00Z Wednesday, it will
be followed additionally by some upslope ascent into the
Adirondacks and Greens to enhance snowfall potential. Most of the
snow should be of moderate intensity and limited duration (6-12
hours), but where the WAA snow combined with post-system upslope
snow, a few inches of accumulation is likely. This is reflected by
WPC probabilities that indicate a 50-70% chance of at least 4
inches in the Adirondacks and Greens.


Weiss



...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect. Please see current Key
Messages below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026


...Overview...

An initial upper low over northern Mexico as the period begins
Tuesday will move into the southern Plains and weaken as it gets
shunted off to to the Southeast. This should bring some
precipitation across the south-central U.S. to Ohio Valley and
Southeast through Wednesday. Behind this, another trough looks to
dive down the West Coast with additional energy entering the
Southwest late week allowing for renewed moisture and expansion of
precipitation across parts of the central to eastern states next
weekend. Northern stream energy is forecast to bring additional
rounds of precipitation into the Northwest and Intermountain West
late week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance continues to show good large scale agreement with
the initial low over northern Mexico as it shifts eastward,
weakens, and becomes absorbed by the larger scale flow. There
remain some uncertainties in the details which will impact
sensible weather and associated precipitation coverage, but we have
seen better agreement evolve with the 12z guidance. It is now
clear that the southern and northern stream energy will remain
separate Tuesday into Wednesday, which should allow for a warmer
solution and less of a threat of winter impacts with the southern
stream system.

The greatest source of uncertainty continues to be with the west
coast troughing by mid to late week and how/when that energy moves
eastward across the country. Today's model trend was for the
GFS/ECMWF to trend closer to the AI model suite (EC
AIFS/AIGFS/AIGEFS) with a slower evolution of this west coast
trough. This delays the stronger system that should eventually move
across the country Friday into next weekend. While we can not say
confidence is high that this trend will persist, we will note that
most of the AI model suite has been in this camp for several runs.
This seemingly adds a bit more confidence to the 12z GFS/EC/CMC
trend than an abrupt shift like this normally would. Thus tend to
think we will see the overall ensemble data/NBM evolve in this
direction. While confidence may be increasing in this slower
solution, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the
details of how the trough/low evolves and the latitude it tracks.

In between these two systems there remains the potential for a
weaker system to move from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday
and Friday within the mid-level northwesterly flow. Quite a bit of
uncertainty with this feature related to the depth of the eastern
U.S. trough and strength of the shortwave energy diving southeast.
The 12z EC/CMC keep a signal for sensible weather impacts, but the
GFS and AI guidance generally keep things dry.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The aforementioned northern stream energy will bring some light
snow accumulations to portions of the Northeast Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Farther south, light to moderate rain is forecast from
the OH/TN valley into the Southeast. Given the trend for more
separation between streams, wintry weather impacts appear less
likely with this feature, although a small corridor of mixed
precipitation is still possible along the northern edge of the
precipitation shield.

The trough/closed low moving into CA will bring rain and mountain
snow to the state Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into the Great
Basin by Wednesday. This feature has trended stronger today, and
thus rainfall and high elevation snow amount potential has
increased. While the AI guidance has shown this for a few model
cycles now, the physical models are just now trending in that
direction. While still not expecting major rain or snow totals,
there is the potential for upwards of 1-2" of rain across the
coastal ranges of southern CA. We will not introduce any Marginal
risk yet, but if models continue to trend then can not rule out a
localized flood risk and will continue to monitor.

It seems like this feature has a pretty good chance of being our
next large impactful system that tracks eastward across the
country Friday into next weekend. As mentioned above, we have seen
some model convergence regarding this evolution, although there
remains considerable uncertainty regarding the details of how the
trough/low evolves and the latitude it tracks. These differences
will play a major role in sensible weather impacts from this
system. So while heavy rain in the warm sector and wintry precip to
the north of the system are all probable it is too early to give
much insight regarding those details.

Another front may bring increasing precipitation chances to the
pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend as well. Lots of model
spread with these details though, and would expect to see
significant forecast changes with regards to both the timing ans
strength of this system over the coming days.

Not seeing much of a signal for hazardous temperatures during this
period, with the main story being above normal temperatures from
the Plains into the Southeast and near normal temperatures from
the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast.


Chenard/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw