Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

Valid 12Z Wed May 21 2025 - 12Z Fri May 23 2025

...Severe Weather and Flash Flooding expected over the Ohio
Valley/Mid-Atlantic today...

...Above average temperatures across southern tier states and West; below
average temperatures from Northern Plains to Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...


Severe storms and excessive rainfall concerns should diminish considerably
across the lower 48 through mid-week. A pair of low pressure systems
moving through the Midwest and East Coast will continue to focus scattered
to isolated showers and thunderstorms along its path. Some of today's
storms could turn severe, producing large hail, strong wind gusts and a
tornado or two, according to the Storm Prediction Center. SPC issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms from the Ozarks to the
Mid-South and far eastern North Carolina to account for this threat.
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms could pose a flash flooding
threat to parts of the Central Appalachians, including the Pittsburgh
metro area today. Flood Watches are in effect for portions of southwestern
Pennsylvania and the Maryland panhandle.

An upper low, parked and spinning over the Great Lakes and Northeast, will
generate cooler temperatures across the Northern Plains, Midwest,
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic for the next several days. High temperatures in
the 40s, 50s and low 60s will represent temperature anomalies between
20-35 degrees below average. Meanwhile, an upper ridge in the West and
central U.S. will produce above average temperatures across the Southern
and Western U.S.. Some high minimum temperature records may be tied or
broken in Florida and southern California. Moderate to Major Heat Risk
will likely increase over south Texas beneath a building upper ridge
through the rest of the week.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

Valid 12Z Sat May 24 2025 - 12Z Wed May 28 2025


...Multi-day heavy rain threat in the Ozarks and vicinity this
weekend...


...Overview...

As the medium range period begins Saturday, a shortwave atop the
Rockies will undercut a broader omega-type pattern consisting of a
northeast Pacific upper low, a central Canada and U.S. ridge, and
troughing over the East. This shortwave and a frontal system will
provide support for heavy rain and thunderstorms in a moist and
unstable environment in parts of the central U.S. this weekend.
Flash flooding is possible in the Ozarks and vicinity. The
shortwave is forecast to merge with the western side of the trough
in the East and cause it to dig into the east-central U.S. early
next week, which should press the front south and east, shifting
precipitation across the southern tier into the Appalachians and
eventually the Eastern Seaboard. The rounds of troughing aloft will
cause cooler than normal temperatures in parts of the central and
eastern U.S., while upper ridging building in the Intermountain
West should allow for warmer than average temperatures there.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance starts out in good agreement with a wavy upper
pattern this weekend. The first model to diverge with the pattern
was the 12Z UKMET, which cut off energy in the Southwest underneath
the ridge by early next week and thus was out of phase with the
other guidance. There is some moderate spread with the way the
Rockies shortwave emerges and joins with the elongated eastern
trough early next week, causing the trough to dig southwest. Around
Monday, the newer 00Z models have the trough reaching farther
southwest than the 12/18Z guidance cycle that was available for
forecast generation, though with the 00Z CMC perhaps on the extreme
western side. The trough position will be meaningful for the
frontal and QPF position early next week, so forecast changes may
be needed.

Models are in good agreement that upper ridging will set up atop
the Interior West behind this trough, forming part of a
redeveloping omega block along with eastern Pacific troughing. The
eastern Pacific trough shows a fair amount of model spread though.
Guidance varies with how much energy may pinch off on the southern
side and even form a southern stream closed low moving into
California around Tuesday or so. The 18Z GFS and 12Z CMC indicated
this upper low forming, as do their new 00Z runs. The 12Z ECMWF did
not show it but the 00Z run shows hints of stronger energy even if
it may not quite close. 12Z AI models did not favor a closed low,
so leaned against it for this forecast by lessening the GFS/CMC
proportion in the forecast blend, but will continue to monitor this
potential.

The WPC forecast was based on a blend of the 12/18Z GFS, 12Z
ECMWF, and 12Z CMC early in the period. Included the ensemble means
in the blend later on, reaching half the blend Day 6 and a bit
more Day 7 as spread increased.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A heavy rainfall pattern will be in place by Saturday as ample
Gulf moisture and instability stream north due to return flow from
surface high pressure over the Southeast and in response to a
shortwave/right entrance region of the upper jet coming into the
north- central Rockies and High Plains. Rain and storms are likely
to overlap with Friday's (Day 3 ERO period) convection where there
will be wetter antecedent conditions. A Slight Risk remains
centered over the Ozarks (which can be sensitive to flash flooding
anyway) in the Day 4/Saturday ERO. Convection ongoing from Saturday
night could continue east into Sunday across the Mid-Mississippi
Valley, with uncertainty in if/where it could persist into the
Tennessee or Ohio Valleys. Then additional convection is forecast
to form farther southwest in the southern Plains/Lower Mississippi
Valley as well on Sunday. Thus plan to show a fairly large Slight
Risk from northeastern Texas across parts of the Lower and Middle
Mississippi Valley for the Day 5/Sunday ERO to cover both areas.
Into the workweek, the front will press south farther into the
southern tier and east into the Appalachians and eventually the
Eastern Seaboard. Areas of heavy rainfall are possible and the
details will continue to get refined with time.

Precipitation, in the form of rain except for snow in the highest
peaks, is possible across the north-central Rockies and Plains into
Saturday underneath upper troughing and as frontal systems move
through. The details are uncertain based on the model spread with
the supporting energies. But the shortwave providing dynamical
support, above normal PWs, and the cusp of the instability gradient
could provide some heavy rain and a low end flash flood risk in
the north-central High Plains. A Marginal Risk is in place there
for the Day 4/Saturday ERO.

Elsewhere, light showers could continue across the Northeast but
gradually lessen in magnitude through the weekend as the upper and
surface lows are slow to pull away there. Summertime scattered
storms are likely across the Florida Peninsula through the period.
The Northwest may see renewed precipitation chances early next
week.

Warmer than normal temperatures will be in place across the
southern Plains on Saturday underneath a central U.S. ridge.
Temperatures well into the 90s to around 100 will support areas of
Major HeatRisk in parts of Texas and Louisiana this weekend. Then
as the mean upper ridge rebuilds farther west, the Great Basin and
northern/central Rockies can expect temperatures generally around
10 to 15 degrees above average. Meanwhile, cooler than normal
temperatures by 5 to 15 degrees will take hold over the north-
central to eastern U.S. into the weekend underneath upper
troughing. The trough will allow for temperatures to cool in the
southern tier during the workweek compared to the hot weekend, but
overall temperatures should gradually trend closer to normal as
next week progresses.


Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

Valid 00Z Thu 22 May 2025 - 00Z Thu 29 May 2025

Moderate to breezy easterly trades are likely through the rest of
this week as midlatitude surface high pressure systems track well
north of Hawaii. Meanwhile lowering heights aloft as an upper
trough sets up will allow for some instability, while normal to
above normal moisture levels are in place. This will add up to a
wet trade wind pattern with showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms favoring windward and mauka areas, as well as
leeward areas of the Big Island, with the heaviest showers most
likely Thursday-Friday.

Through the weekend and into early next
week, moderate to breezy trades are likely to persist. But model
guidance continues to show moisture levels gradually decreasing
for fewer showers.


Tate

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025
Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed May 21 2025 - 12Z Thu May 22 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

A vigorous upper level shortwave tracking eastward to the south of
a broad upper level low over Ontario will bring a pair of lows into
the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic today. The leading front ahead of
these lows will be the focus for rainfall through the day and into
tonight. The northwestern-more of the surface lows will track
north of the Slight Risk area towards Lake Erie, while the second
low will form along the coast near the VA/NC border. This pattern
will set up a west to southwesterly predominant flow into the
Appalachians from the west, while also favoring broad easterly
marine flow into the Mid-Atlantic. Where these two opposing flows
meet, enhanced uplift over the terrain will wring out as
occasionally heavy rainfall the decreasing available atmospheric
moisture. This area of southwest Pennsylvania and northern West
Virginia is particularly sensitive to heavy rainfall causing
flooding. This afternoon expect limited instability to advect into
the area, which should allow for more convective shower activity,
which in the unidirectional flow will favor training of those
showers into the mountains. This instability will have a hard time
advecting too far north however, so the Slight Risk area was
trimmed on the northern side, despite central PA's sensitivity to
heavy rain as well, as the rain while persistent will be unlikely
to fall heavily enough to cause more than isolated flash flooding.
Meanwhile further south, more instability will be present but the
forcing from the upper levels will diminish rapidly the further
south you go across West Virginia, so the Slight is highlighting
the small region where instability and forcing overlap.

Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was trimmed westward away from the
coast of the Mid-Atlantic due to very limited, if not zero
instability. So here too the ability for the convection to produce
heavy rainfall will be very limited.

Finally, across Deep South Texas, other than a small trim off the
northern end of the Marginal, the risk area remains about the same.
Afternoon and evening convection is likely on the Mexico side of
the river, but that convection continues to be simulated in the
guidance to drift east into Deep South Texas. PWATs above 2 inches
in this area will be very supportive of that convection producing
very heavy rain, despite the bone dry soils in the area, so
isolated flash flooding is possible.

Wegman

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu May 22 2025 - 12Z Fri May 23 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

A couple areas will be monitored on Thursday, including far north
Texas along the Red River, as well as for the urban corridor of
southeast Florida. Convection in either of these areas may cause
isolated and localized flash flooding, but there is enough
uncertainty with especially the coverage, and in Florida the
potential movement (or lack thereof) of the convection to forego a
Marginal for now, but one may be needed with future updates.

Wegman

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri May 23 2025 - 12Z Sat May 24 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS AND OZARKS...

Return/southerly flow off the Gulf will continue to increase the
available atmospheric moisture across the southern Plains as much
of Texas and Oklahoma is parked under a broad southerly flow regime
through the day Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop at the nose of this jet as early as Friday afternoon, but
the strongest storms and those most likely to cause flash flooding
are expected to hold off until after midnight Friday night across
the Marginal Risk area. This is largely due to the nocturnal
strengthening of the low level jet. This will advect air with PWATs
over 1.5 inches into the southern and central Plains.

While there will be a leeside low developing over southwest Kansas
Friday night that may help to focus the forcing against a large
Canadian area of high pressure over much of the eastern half of the
country, the convection will have to contend with a large upper
level ridge over the area, which will send any help from the upper
levels well north of the Marginal Risk area, and limit instability
a bit with warm air aloft. Further, as with most forecasts of
convection, there are likely to be substantive changes as to where
the strongest storms set up. Thus, while the rainfall forecast has
come up quite a bit, the confidence is not quite there yet for a
Slight, though trends would absolutely favor the issuance of an
upgrade somewhere in the general area over the next couple days.

South Florida will also need to be monitored as the classic
"stalled front" will remain over the area, acting as a focus for
additional afternoon showers and thunderstorms, that if tied to a
surface feature like the sea breeze, could result in localized
flash flooding. Here too a Marginal Risk might be needed with
future updates.

Wegman

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025


A heavy rainfall pattern will be in place by Saturday as ample
Gulf moisture and instability stream north due to return flow from
surface high pressure over the Southeast and in response to a
shortwave/right entrance region of the upper jet coming into the
north- central Rockies and High Plains. Rain and storms are likely
to overlap with Friday's (Day 3 ERO period) convection where there
will be wetter antecedent conditions. A Slight Risk remains
centered over the Ozarks (which can be sensitive to flash flooding
anyway) in the Day 4/Saturday ERO. Convection ongoing from Saturday
night could continue east into Sunday across the Mid-Mississippi
Valley, with uncertainty in if/where it could persist into the
Tennessee or Ohio Valleys. Then additional convection is forecast
to form farther southwest in the southern Plains/Lower Mississippi
Valley as well on Sunday. Thus plan to show a fairly large Slight
Risk from northeastern Texas across parts of the Lower and Middle
Mississippi Valley for the Day 5/Sunday ERO to cover both areas.
Into the workweek, the front will press south farther into the
southern tier and east into the Appalachians and eventually the
Eastern Seaboard. Areas of heavy rainfall are possible and the
details will continue to get refined with time.

Precipitation, in the form of rain except for snow in the highest
peaks, is possible across the north-central Rockies and Plains into
Saturday underneath upper troughing and as frontal systems move
through. The details are uncertain based on the model spread with
the supporting energies. But the shortwave providing dynamical
support, above normal PWs, and the cusp of the instability gradient
could provide some heavy rain and a low end flash flood risk in
the north-central High Plains. A Marginal Risk is in place there
for the Day 4/Saturday ERO.

Elsewhere, light showers could continue across the Northeast but
gradually lessen in magnitude through the weekend as the upper and
surface lows are slow to pull away there. Summertime scattered
storms are likely across the Florida Peninsula through the period.
The Northwest may see renewed precipitation chances early next
week.

Warmer than normal temperatures will be in place across the
southern Plains on Saturday underneath a central U.S. ridge.
Temperatures well into the 90s to around 100 will support areas of
Major HeatRisk in parts of Texas and Louisiana this weekend. Then
as the mean upper ridge rebuilds farther west, the Great Basin and
northern/central Rockies can expect temperatures generally around
10 to 15 degrees above average. Meanwhile, cooler than normal
temperatures by 5 to 15 degrees will take hold over the north-
central to eastern U.S. into the weekend underneath upper
troughing. The trough will allow for temperatures to cool in the
southern tier during the workweek compared to the hot weekend, but
overall temperatures should gradually trend closer to normal as
next week progresses.


Tate

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025


A heavy rainfall pattern will be in place by Saturday as ample
Gulf moisture and instability stream north due to return flow from
surface high pressure over the Southeast and in response to a
shortwave/right entrance region of the upper jet coming into the
north- central Rockies and High Plains. Rain and storms are likely
to overlap with Friday's (Day 3 ERO period) convection where there
will be wetter antecedent conditions. A Slight Risk remains
centered over the Ozarks (which can be sensitive to flash flooding
anyway) in the Day 4/Saturday ERO. Convection ongoing from Saturday
night could continue east into Sunday across the Mid-Mississippi
Valley, with uncertainty in if/where it could persist into the
Tennessee or Ohio Valleys. Then additional convection is forecast
to form farther southwest in the southern Plains/Lower Mississippi
Valley as well on Sunday. Thus plan to show a fairly large Slight
Risk from northeastern Texas across parts of the Lower and Middle
Mississippi Valley for the Day 5/Sunday ERO to cover both areas.
Into the workweek, the front will press south farther into the
southern tier and east into the Appalachians and eventually the
Eastern Seaboard. Areas of heavy rainfall are possible and the
details will continue to get refined with time.

Precipitation, in the form of rain except for snow in the highest
peaks, is possible across the north-central Rockies and Plains into
Saturday underneath upper troughing and as frontal systems move
through. The details are uncertain based on the model spread with
the supporting energies. But the shortwave providing dynamical
support, above normal PWs, and the cusp of the instability gradient
could provide some heavy rain and a low end flash flood risk in
the north-central High Plains. A Marginal Risk is in place there
for the Day 4/Saturday ERO.

Elsewhere, light showers could continue across the Northeast but
gradually lessen in magnitude through the weekend as the upper and
surface lows are slow to pull away there. Summertime scattered
storms are likely across the Florida Peninsula through the period.
The Northwest may see renewed precipitation chances early next
week.

Warmer than normal temperatures will be in place across the
southern Plains on Saturday underneath a central U.S. ridge.
Temperatures well into the 90s to around 100 will support areas of
Major HeatRisk in parts of Texas and Louisiana this weekend. Then
as the mean upper ridge rebuilds farther west, the Great Basin and
northern/central Rockies can expect temperatures generally around
10 to 15 degrees above average. Meanwhile, cooler than normal
temperatures by 5 to 15 degrees will take hold over the north-
central to eastern U.S. into the weekend underneath upper
troughing. The trough will allow for temperatures to cool in the
southern tier during the workweek compared to the hot weekend, but
overall temperatures should gradually trend closer to normal as
next week progresses.


Tate

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
214 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025

Valid 00Z Thu May 08 2025 - 00Z Sun May 11 2025


...Colorado...
Day 1...

Lingering vorticity on the western side of the departing upper low
will still trigger some light snow over the San Juans this evening
before tapering off tonight/early Thursday. WPC probabilities for
at least an additional 4 inches of snow after 00Z are low (10-40%)
above 11,000ft.

For days 2-3, the probability of at least 4 inches of snow is less
than 10%.

The probability of significant freezing rain across the CONUS is
less than 10%.

Note - this is the last regularly scheduled discussion (QPFHSD)
for the 2024-2025 winter season. Unless a significant winter
weather threat emerges, this discussion will next be updated on or
about September 25, 2025.


Fracasso

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

Valid 12Z Sat May 24 2025 - 12Z Wed May 28 2025


...Multi-day heavy rain threat in the Ozarks and vicinity this
weekend...


...Overview...

As the medium range period begins Saturday, a shortwave atop the
Rockies will undercut a broader omega-type pattern consisting of a
northeast Pacific upper low, a central Canada and U.S. ridge, and
troughing over the East. This shortwave and a frontal system will
provide support for heavy rain and thunderstorms in a moist and
unstable environment in parts of the central U.S. this weekend.
Flash flooding is possible in the Ozarks and vicinity. The
shortwave is forecast to merge with the western side of the trough
in the East and cause it to dig into the east-central U.S. early
next week, which should press the front south and east, shifting
precipitation across the southern tier into the Appalachians and
eventually the Eastern Seaboard. The rounds of troughing aloft will
cause cooler than normal temperatures in parts of the central and
eastern U.S., while upper ridging building in the Intermountain
West should allow for warmer than average temperatures there.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance starts out in good agreement with a wavy upper
pattern this weekend. The first model to diverge with the pattern
was the 12Z UKMET, which cut off energy in the Southwest underneath
the ridge by early next week and thus was out of phase with the
other guidance. There is some moderate spread with the way the
Rockies shortwave emerges and joins with the elongated eastern
trough early next week, causing the trough to dig southwest. Around
Monday, the newer 00Z models have the trough reaching farther
southwest than the 12/18Z guidance cycle that was available for
forecast generation, though with the 00Z CMC perhaps on the extreme
western side. The trough position will be meaningful for the
frontal and QPF position early next week, so forecast changes may
be needed.

Models are in good agreement that upper ridging will set up atop
the Interior West behind this trough, forming part of a
redeveloping omega block along with eastern Pacific troughing. The
eastern Pacific trough shows a fair amount of model spread though.
Guidance varies with how much energy may pinch off on the southern
side and even form a southern stream closed low moving into
California around Tuesday or so. The 18Z GFS and 12Z CMC indicated
this upper low forming, as do their new 00Z runs. The 12Z ECMWF did
not show it but the 00Z run shows hints of stronger energy even if
it may not quite close. 12Z AI models did not favor a closed low,
so leaned against it for this forecast by lessening the GFS/CMC
proportion in the forecast blend, but will continue to monitor this
potential.

The WPC forecast was based on a blend of the 12/18Z GFS, 12Z
ECMWF, and 12Z CMC early in the period. Included the ensemble means
in the blend later on, reaching half the blend Day 6 and a bit
more Day 7 as spread increased.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A heavy rainfall pattern will be in place by Saturday as ample
Gulf moisture and instability stream north due to return flow from
surface high pressure over the Southeast and in response to a
shortwave/right entrance region of the upper jet coming into the
north- central Rockies and High Plains. Rain and storms are likely
to overlap with Friday's (Day 3 ERO period) convection where there
will be wetter antecedent conditions. A Slight Risk remains
centered over the Ozarks (which can be sensitive to flash flooding
anyway) in the Day 4/Saturday ERO. Convection ongoing from Saturday
night could continue east into Sunday across the Mid-Mississippi
Valley, with uncertainty in if/where it could persist into the
Tennessee or Ohio Valleys. Then additional convection is forecast
to form farther southwest in the southern Plains/Lower Mississippi
Valley as well on Sunday. Thus plan to show a fairly large Slight
Risk from northeastern Texas across parts of the Lower and Middle
Mississippi Valley for the Day 5/Sunday ERO to cover both areas.
Into the workweek, the front will press south farther into the
southern tier and east into the Appalachians and eventually the
Eastern Seaboard. Areas of heavy rainfall are possible and the
details will continue to get refined with time.

Precipitation, in the form of rain except for snow in the highest
peaks, is possible across the north-central Rockies and Plains into
Saturday underneath upper troughing and as frontal systems move
through. The details are uncertain based on the model spread with
the supporting energies. But the shortwave providing dynamical
support, above normal PWs, and the cusp of the instability gradient
could provide some heavy rain and a low end flash flood risk in
the north-central High Plains. A Marginal Risk is in place there
for the Day 4/Saturday ERO.

Elsewhere, light showers could continue across the Northeast but
gradually lessen in magnitude through the weekend as the upper and
surface lows are slow to pull away there. Summertime scattered
storms are likely across the Florida Peninsula through the period.
The Northwest may see renewed precipitation chances early next
week.

Warmer than normal temperatures will be in place across the
southern Plains on Saturday underneath a central U.S. ridge.
Temperatures well into the 90s to around 100 will support areas of
Major HeatRisk in parts of Texas and Louisiana this weekend. Then
as the mean upper ridge rebuilds farther west, the Great Basin and
northern/central Rockies can expect temperatures generally around
10 to 15 degrees above average. Meanwhile, cooler than normal
temperatures by 5 to 15 degrees will take hold over the north-
central to eastern U.S. into the weekend underneath upper
troughing. The trough will allow for temperatures to cool in the
southern tier during the workweek compared to the hot weekend, but
overall temperatures should gradually trend closer to normal as
next week progresses.


Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw