Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025
Valid 00Z Sun Jun 22 2025 - 00Z Tue Jun 24 2025
..There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southwestern
Texas and southeastern New Mexico on Sunday, as well as Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley/ Central Plains and Southern Rockies/Southern High
Plains on Monday...
...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower
Great Lakes/Northeast on Saturday and Northern/Central Plains/Upper
Mississippi Valley/Southern High Plains on Sunday...
...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Great
Basin/Southwest on Saturday...
A front extending from just north of Lake Superior/Upper Great Lakes to
the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies and then into the Great Basin
will have a wave of low pressure over the Northern Plains that moves
northeastward to near James Bay, Canada, by Monday evening. The trailing
front will extend from the Upper Great Lakes to the Central Plains and
westward into the Great Basin. Moisture pooling along the boundary will
produce showers and severe thunderstorms from the Lower Great
Lakes/Northeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast
through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
minimal threat of tornadoes.
Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Northern Rockies to the Great Lakes. Additionally, moisture and
upper-level energy will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Gulf Coast States and the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic
Coast through Sunday morning.
On Sunday, moisture will stream northwestward over Texas and interact with
upper-level energy to produce showers and thunderstorms, creating heavy
rain over parts of southwestern Texas and southeastern New Mexico.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of southwestern Texas and southeastern New Mexico from
Sunday into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.
In addition, the moisture will flow northward east of a dryline and along
and ahead of the cold front over the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi
Valley/Upper Great Lakes and Central/Southern High Plains, producing
showers and severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes and Central/Southern
High Plains from Sunday through Monday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an increased
threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail
two inches or greater over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi
Valley.
Further, moisture pooling along a front over the Northeast will aid in
producing strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast and
northern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk
(level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast and
norther Mid-Atlantic from Sunday into Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.
Moreover, moisture and upper-level impulses will trigger showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the
Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast.
On Monday, moisture will continue to flow along the dryline and front over
the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the Central Southern High Plains,
producing two areas of heavy rain. The first area will cover parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains on Monday. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.
The second area of heavy rain will develop over parts of the Southern
Rockies and Southern High Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Rockies
and Southern High Plains on Monday. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.
Moreover, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop along the northern
parts of the front along parts of the Upper Great Lake/Upper Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Great Lake/Upper Mississippi Valley
on Monday. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Likewise, moisture and upper-level energy will produce scattered showers
and thunderstorms on Monday over parts of the Gulf Coast States and the
Southeast.
Meanwhile, an upper-level low will move across the Pacific Northwest into
the Northern High Plains by Monday, leaving an upper-level trough over the
West Coast. The energy will produce rain over the Northwest through Monday
morning. Further, wet mountain snow will develop over parts of the
Northern Rockies, prompting a Winter Storm Warning for parts of Glacier
National Park from early Saturday morning to Sunday afternoon. At lower
elevations, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the region through
Sunday evening. Also, showers and thunderstorms will move into parts of
the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
Elsewhere, deep boundary-layer mixing is expected across the Great Basin
during the afternoon, with surface temperatures climbing into the 90s to
100 F and relative humidity falling into the single digits. The deep
boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a
tightening regional pressure gradient, will contribute to an expansive
area of 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher
gusts), which has prompted a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of
the Great Basin/Southwest on Saturday.
Ziegenfelder
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php