Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Jul 04 2025 - 12Z Sun Jul 06 2025

...A slight risk of severe weather and excessive rainfall expected today
from the northern Plains to the upper Midwest with lingering areas of
heavy rainfall possible across western Texas and Florida.

...Threat of heavy rain increasing for coastal Carolinas as the National
Hurricane Center monitors the potential of tropical cyclone development
just off the southeast U.S. coast...

...Heat and humidity will be migrating eastwards across the Great Lakes
region towards the East Coast through the Holiday weekend, with notable
population centers entering the Major Heat Risk category...

On this 4th of July and into the holiday weekend, the most active weather
across the nation will likely be found across the northern Plains into the
upper Midwest ahead of a lifting warm front, followed by a cold front
marching through the region. A couple of clusters of strong to severe
thunderstorms containing very heavy rain and gusty winds are already
impacting portions of North Dakota into the northwestern corner of
Minnesota early this morning. These storms are expected to reach a lull
later this morning before re-firing this evening into the early on
Saturday across the same general corridor as a low pressure system forms
along the trailing front. The rain will then reach the Great Lakes
Saturday night into Sunday morning as the low pressure system gets ready
to exit into Canada. Meanwhile, strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop Saturday night into Sunday morning, this time farther
west across the northern High Plains ahead of an upper-level trough.

As the aforementioned upper trough lifts farther north across the western
U.S. today, the recent spell of heavy rain across the Southwest will
continue to taper off today. Meanwhile, areas of enhanced rainfall will
move across the Great Basin and into the northern Rockies today and into
Saturday due to the upper trough. Over the Plains, clusters of
thunderstorms will keep a threat of heavy rain in place early today across
central Texas (which could be attributed to remnant moisture from former
tropical storm Barry). The heavy rain threat is forecast to largely
diminish by later today.

Near the coast of the southeastern U.S., a broad low pressure area has
formed along a weakening frontal boundary. The National Hurricane Center
continues to monitor the potential for tropical cyclone formation within
this broad low pressure area just off the coast through the next couple of
days. There has been an increasing chance for heavy rainfall forecast to
reach the coastal sections of the Carolinas later this weekend ahead of
the circulation center of this low system interacting with a weak coastal
front. In addition, portions of the western to southwestern Florida
Peninsula are expected to see a slight risk of heavy rainfall with
thunderstorms periodically moving onshore from the Gulf on the other side
of the low pressure system.

For temperatures on the 4th of July, most of the West, southern Plains,
and Northeast should see temperatures slightly below average for this time
of the year. Highs in the West will see 70s and 60s in the northern parts
of the region, while the southern part of the West still reaches the lower
to middle 80s. The Desert Southwest will be in the low 100s and plenty
warm still. The rainfall will keep temperatures in check around Texas and
Florida with highs mostly in the upper 80s. A cold front will clear the
Northeast and bring lower humidity with maximum temperatures in the 70s
and the 80s. The hotpot for the 4th will be the Midwest and Ohio Valley
with high temperatures in the middle 90s. This heat will shift towards the
east coast into the early work week and late weekend. Residents in cities
from the Great Lakes to the urban corridor by Sunday and Monday will need
to drink plenty of water and take cool breaks. The Storm Prediction Center
also indicates an Elevated fire weather risk across the Great Basin today
where winds are gusty with low relative humidities.

Kong/Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Jul 07 2025 - 12Z Fri Jul 11 2025


...Coastal Southeast heavy rain threat as NHC eyes system....

...North-central U.S. to Midwest/Northeast heavy rain threats,
with trailing activity spread back to the south-central states...

...Hazardous heat and humidity to spread from the Midwest this
holiday weekend to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast early next week as
sweltering heat lingers for the South and builds over the West...


...Pattern Overview...

An area of low pressure located offshore near Jacksonville, Florida
is being closely monitored by the National Hurricane Center as the
environment is marginally conducive for further development into a
tropical or subtropical. This feature is expected to bring heavy
rains to portions of Florida today and to the Carolinas by
Saturday.

Pacific shortwaves will work into lingering West Coast mean upper
troughs into next week. A building upper ridge downstream will
spread a threat of hazardous heat and humidity from the Midwest
this holiday weekend to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast early next week
as a hot summer airmass lingers over the South and also builds next
week up over the West. The Southwest will likely have renewed
monsoonal moisture across the region. A series of strong to severe
convection and heavy rain fueling impulses will progress atop the
ridge from the Midwest/Great Lakes to the Northeast, with trailing
activity also firing back over the north-central and south-central
U.S.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment

The latest suite of guidance maintains good agreement through the
first half of the extended with the increasing spread for the
latter periods. Confidence remains high for the pattern in regards
to widespread heat and moderately high for the duration of the most
extreme heat. The WPC medium range product suite was mainly
derived from a blend of GFS/CMC/ECMWF/UKMET along with the GEFS and
ECMWF ensemble means and the National Blend of Models. The
development and track of the potential tropical system offshore the
Southeast U.S. coast will be critical to monitor.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) Marginal Risk areas have been
added for Day 4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday for the coastal Southeast
and southern parts of New England given the increased moisture and
rainfall potential associated with possible system development
that the NHC is monitoring.

A broadening upper ridge will spread hazardous heat and humidity
from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast over the weekend and
into next week while the hot airmass remains over the South and
builds to the West. Monsoonal moisture coming into the Southwest
along with daytime heating will trigger showers and thunderstorms
development which are covered by a Day 4-5 Marginal Risk area.

A slow main frontal push across from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
states and the Northeast may focus periods with enhanced pooled
moisture and instability to fuel some strong to severe storms and
locally heavy rain/runoff threats with training potential in spots
Sunday into Monday as upper trough/impulse energies work on the
northern periphery of the main central U.S. upper ridge. Trailing
activity extends back next week with impulses over the south-
central U.S. and into the Southwest with some renewed monsoonal
flow. Elongated WPC ERO Marginal Risk areas are depicted for Day
4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. Convection/MCS activity will also fire
back to the north-central states next week as subsequent upper-
level waves interact with moisture/instability pooling fronts/upper
diffluence. A Day 5/Monday marginal risk area was maintained
there.


Campbell/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Jul 05 2025 - 00Z Sat Jul 12 2025

Surface high pressure positioned north of the islands will help
maintain breezy to windy trades over the next several days. A
weakening frontal boundary will push slowly south and allow for
rainfall to focus over the Big Island before shifting farther
south and dissipating by Tuesday. The trades will focus the
majority of the rainfall to the eastern slops of the Big Island
however some rain my spread to the leeward areas. Late this week
into the weekend, the surface high is forecast to drift
southeastward, and meanwhile an upper trough pushing a cold front
will approach west of the state. This should permit winds to
gradually weaken to moderate level while veering some and
reorienting best rain chances on the southeastern sides of the
islands. Model guidance shows moisture levels increasing by early
next week ahead of the front, so will continue to monitor for
possible increases in rain amounts by that time.

Campbell

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025
Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 04 2025 - 12Z Sat Jul 05 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA, AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...Central Texas...
Ongoing storms associated with the mid-level remains of tropical
cyclone Barry and a plume of anomalous moisture are expected to
continue beyond 12Z this morning, resulting in additional heavy
amounts and the potential for flash flooding. Fueled by PWs
~2 to 2.25 inches (+3 std dev above normal), the consensus of the
hi-res guidance shows slow-moving storms, with heavy rainfall
rates continuing this morning across portions of South-Central
Texas and the Hill Country. A Slight Risk area was introduced for
areas where the HREF is showing high neighborhood probabilities for
additional accumulations over 2 inches. The bulk of this is
expected to fall during the morning into the early afternoon,
before waning and drifing east by this evening.

...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest...
The overnight guidance continues to show a strong signal for
widespread moderate to heavy amounts associated with training
storms that are expected to develop later today. Increasing
southerly winds ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains will draw a deep moisture plume up into the region,
with PWs increasing to ~2 inches (~3 std dev above normal). Storms
are expected to develop and train along a slowly-advancing cold
front, supporting heavy accumulations and the potential for flash
flooding. The general consensus of the guidance shows the heaviest
amounts centered across southeastern North Dakota into northern
Minnesota. HREF neighborhood probabilities for amounts over 2
inches are well above 70 percent across much of this region, with
the HREF showing some higher probabilities for amounts over 3
inches are well. Models also show convection developing farther to
the south into the Central Plains. However, the general consensus
indicates these storms will be more progressive - limiting the
threat for widespread heavy amounts and flooding concerns.

...Florida...
Deep moisture pooling along the remnants of a stalled frontal
boundary and an upper low will continue to support an environment
conducive to heavy rainfall. Similar to yesterday, the models show
a weak wave dropping into the western Gulf, helping to focus heavy
amounts along the Sun Coast. Also similar to yesterday, the HREF is
showing high neighborhood probabilities for amounts over 3 inches.
However, much of the hi-res guidance has been underperforming
across this area, with the coverage of heavy amounts yesterday far
less impressive than what was forecast. Therefore, lacking
confidence in the models, opted not to upgrade to a Slight Risk at
this point, but will continue to reevaluate.

...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies...
A well-defined shortwave trough and modest moisture anomalies are
expected to support widespread showers and storms across the
region. Some of these storms may produce locally heavy amounts,
with the HREF showing high neighborhood probabilities for
accumulations over an inch within the Marginal Risk area. This may
produce localized flooding concerns, especially over areas of
complex terrain and recent burn scars.

Pereira

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jul 05 2025 - 12Z Sun Jul 06 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST, TEXAS, FLORIDA, AND THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...

...Northern High Plains...
A well-defined shortwave trough moving across the Northwest on Day
1, will move across the northern Rockies into the High Plains,
where it will interact with moisture pooling along a boundary
banked along the high terrain. Strong mid-to-upper level forcing
along with modest moisture anomalies will support storm
development, with some potential for locally heavy amounts as these
storms move east across eastern Montana and the western Dakotas.

...Upper Midwest...
A deep moisture plume (PWs ~2 inches) will continue to advance east
along with a well-defined shortwave trough across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes, supporting heavy rain across the region. Some
training may continue from Day 1 into Day 2, raising the threat for
additional heavy accumulations and flash flooding. However,
confidence in its placement is less than that in the previous day.
And with some of the guidance indicating a more progressive system,
and/or the focus for heavy amounts moving across Lake Superior into
Canada, opted to maintain just a Marginal Risk area for now.

...Central Texas...
While the models are far from in agreement, some including the
ECMWF, the Canadian, and the UKMET indicate that lingering moisture
and mid level energy will produce additional storms and potentially
heavy amounts across portions of central Texas, including those
areas being currently impacted by heavy rains.

...Southeast...
The model consensus shows an area of low pressure becoming better
organized and moving north along the Southeast Coast. As it does,
heavy rainfall may become more of a concern across coastal sections
of the Carolinas. Meanwhile, deep moisture remaining across
Florida will support another day of showers and storms capable of
producing heavy amounts.

Pereira

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 06 2025 - 12Z Mon Jul 07 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...Great Lakes to the Central and Southern Plains...
A shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will weaken and move east,
however deep moisture along its trailing boundary may support
showers and storms from the Great Lakes back through the mid
Mississippi Valley into the Plains. Mid level energy moving out
into the Central Plains may help support storm development and a
greater threat for heavier amounts across portions of the High
Plains into Kansas and Nebraska.

...Carolinas...
The models present a good deal of spread regarding the development
and track of a low now forming east of the Florida coast.
Regardless of development, heavy rain can be expected for at least
portions of the Carolinas this period. As the forecast becomes
clearer, adjustments in the placement and category of the ERO will
likely be necessary. But for now, given the uncertainty, opted to
maintain just a Marginal Risk covering much of the eastern
Carolinas.

Pereira
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025


WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) Marginal Risk areas have been
added for Day 4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday for the coastal Southeast
and southern parts of New England given the increased moisture and
rainfall potential associated with possible system development
that the NHC is monitoring.

A broadening upper ridge will spread hazardous heat and humidity
from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast over the weekend and
into next week while the hot airmass remains over the South and
builds to the West. Monsoonal moisture coming into the Southwest
along with daytime heating will trigger showers and thunderstorms
development which are covered by a Day 4-5 Marginal Risk area.

A slow main frontal push across from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
states and the Northeast may focus periods with enhanced pooled
moisture and instability to fuel some strong to severe storms and
locally heavy rain/runoff threats with training potential in spots
Sunday into Monday as upper trough/impulse energies work on the
northern periphery of the main central U.S. upper ridge. Trailing
activity extends back next week with impulses over the south-
central U.S. and into the Southwest with some renewed monsoonal
flow. Elongated WPC ERO Marginal Risk areas are depicted for Day
4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. Convection/MCS activity will also fire
back to the north-central states next week as subsequent upper-
level waves interact with moisture/instability pooling fronts/upper
diffluence. A Day 5/Monday marginal risk area was maintained
there.


Campbell/Schichtel

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025


WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) Marginal Risk areas have been
added for Day 4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday for the coastal Southeast
and southern parts of New England given the increased moisture and
rainfall potential associated with possible system development
that the NHC is monitoring.

A broadening upper ridge will spread hazardous heat and humidity
from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast over the weekend and
into next week while the hot airmass remains over the South and
builds to the West. Monsoonal moisture coming into the Southwest
along with daytime heating will trigger showers and thunderstorms
development which are covered by a Day 4-5 Marginal Risk area.

A slow main frontal push across from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
states and the Northeast may focus periods with enhanced pooled
moisture and instability to fuel some strong to severe storms and
locally heavy rain/runoff threats with training potential in spots
Sunday into Monday as upper trough/impulse energies work on the
northern periphery of the main central U.S. upper ridge. Trailing
activity extends back next week with impulses over the south-
central U.S. and into the Southwest with some renewed monsoonal
flow. Elongated WPC ERO Marginal Risk areas are depicted for Day
4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. Convection/MCS activity will also fire
back to the north-central states next week as subsequent upper-
level waves interact with moisture/instability pooling fronts/upper
diffluence. A Day 5/Monday marginal risk area was maintained
there.


Campbell/Schichtel

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
214 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025

Valid 00Z Thu May 08 2025 - 00Z Sun May 11 2025


...Colorado...
Day 1...

Lingering vorticity on the western side of the departing upper low
will still trigger some light snow over the San Juans this evening
before tapering off tonight/early Thursday. WPC probabilities for
at least an additional 4 inches of snow after 00Z are low (10-40%)
above 11,000ft.

For days 2-3, the probability of at least 4 inches of snow is less
than 10%.

The probability of significant freezing rain across the CONUS is
less than 10%.

Note - this is the last regularly scheduled discussion (QPFHSD)
for the 2024-2025 winter season. Unless a significant winter
weather threat emerges, this discussion will next be updated on or
about September 25, 2025.


Fracasso

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Jul 07 2025 - 12Z Fri Jul 11 2025


...Coastal Southeast heavy rain threat as NHC eyes system....

...North-central U.S. to Midwest/Northeast heavy rain threats,
with trailing activity spread back to the south-central states...

...Hazardous heat and humidity to spread from the Midwest this
holiday weekend to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast early next week as
sweltering heat lingers for the South and builds over the West...


...Pattern Overview...

An area of low pressure located offshore near Jacksonville, Florida
is being closely monitored by the National Hurricane Center as the
environment is marginally conducive for further development into a
tropical or subtropical. This feature is expected to bring heavy
rains to portions of Florida today and to the Carolinas by
Saturday.

Pacific shortwaves will work into lingering West Coast mean upper
troughs into next week. A building upper ridge downstream will
spread a threat of hazardous heat and humidity from the Midwest
this holiday weekend to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast early next week
as a hot summer airmass lingers over the South and also builds next
week up over the West. The Southwest will likely have renewed
monsoonal moisture across the region. A series of strong to severe
convection and heavy rain fueling impulses will progress atop the
ridge from the Midwest/Great Lakes to the Northeast, with trailing
activity also firing back over the north-central and south-central
U.S.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment

The latest suite of guidance maintains good agreement through the
first half of the extended with the increasing spread for the
latter periods. Confidence remains high for the pattern in regards
to widespread heat and moderately high for the duration of the most
extreme heat. The WPC medium range product suite was mainly
derived from a blend of GFS/CMC/ECMWF/UKMET along with the GEFS and
ECMWF ensemble means and the National Blend of Models. The
development and track of the potential tropical system offshore the
Southeast U.S. coast will be critical to monitor.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) Marginal Risk areas have been
added for Day 4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday for the coastal Southeast
and southern parts of New England given the increased moisture and
rainfall potential associated with possible system development
that the NHC is monitoring.

A broadening upper ridge will spread hazardous heat and humidity
from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast over the weekend and
into next week while the hot airmass remains over the South and
builds to the West. Monsoonal moisture coming into the Southwest
along with daytime heating will trigger showers and thunderstorms
development which are covered by a Day 4-5 Marginal Risk area.

A slow main frontal push across from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
states and the Northeast may focus periods with enhanced pooled
moisture and instability to fuel some strong to severe storms and
locally heavy rain/runoff threats with training potential in spots
Sunday into Monday as upper trough/impulse energies work on the
northern periphery of the main central U.S. upper ridge. Trailing
activity extends back next week with impulses over the south-
central U.S. and into the Southwest with some renewed monsoonal
flow. Elongated WPC ERO Marginal Risk areas are depicted for Day
4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. Convection/MCS activity will also fire
back to the north-central states next week as subsequent upper-
level waves interact with moisture/instability pooling fronts/upper
diffluence. A Day 5/Monday marginal risk area was maintained
there.


Campbell/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw